Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-29 08:33Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel products have limited contradictions, and steel prices will fluctuate in the short term. The profitability of steel mills has improved, iron - water production has slightly increased, and the production of rebar has continued to rise. However, demand is weak in the off - season. The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded, but its sustainability is questionable, and exports are expected to face pressure. The inventory of steel products is being depleted, but there is still pressure on hot - rolled coil inventory. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production and Supply - Production Capacity Utilization: The blast furnace operating rate is 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The electric furnace operating rate is 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. [5] - Output: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills is 184.39 million tons (+2.71), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 293.54 million tons (+1.63). The iron - water output is 2.2658 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons. [5] 3.2 Demand - Rebar: The demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 202.68 million tons (-5.96). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 9.49 million tons. [5][49] - Hot - Rolled Coils: The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 307.04 million tons (+8.76). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 3.05 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled output was 86.48 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 million tons. [5][53] 3.3 Inventory - Rebar: The total inventory of rebar is 434.25 million tons (-18.29), the social inventory is 294.19 million tons (-18.81), and the steel mill inventory is 140.06 million tons (+0.52). [5] - Hot - Rolled Coils: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 377.22 million tons (-13.5), the social inventory is 296.7 million tons (-10.6), and the steel mill inventory is 80.52 million tons (-2.9). The inventory decline has increased, but it is still at a high level. [5] - Overall: The inventory of major steel products is being depleted. As of December 26, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.35 million tons, and the inventory of major steel products is 8.7279 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.9 million tons. [56] 3.4 Price - Spot Price: As of December 26, the average price of rebar in major national cities is 3316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the average price of hot - rolled coils in the country is 3288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. [9] - Basis: The basis has shrunk. The basis of the rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (-14). [5] 3.5 Other Market Information - Steel Exports: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. [66] - Automobile Market: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons. [70] - Real Estate Market: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started area of houses was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed area of houses was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales amount of commercial housing was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 11.9%. [73]