JCCL(SH:600362) Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-29 09:21Report Title - Market Game Intensifies, Copper Price Reaches 100,000 - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.12.29 [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Core Views Copper - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [3]. - Fundamental: Global copper inventories are shifting to the US market, and there is still an expectation of supply tightness. High - priced copper suppresses short - term demand, but long - term demand from emerging fields like AI may be a breakout point [3]. - Overall: The medium - term bullish logic for copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term attention on macro sentiment and capital flow disturbances [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [5]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4.439 million tons with a slight increase. December is the traditional off - season, but consumption in industries like automotive, power, and electronics is resilient, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [5]. - Overall: With little change in fundamentals and the market trading on the Fed's rate - cut expectation, aluminum prices may remain high [5]. Alumina - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [6]. - Fundamental: As of December 25, the national metallurgical alumina installed capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 88.085 million tons/year with a flat weekly operating rate of 79.85%. Alumina plants are continuously accumulating inventory [6]. - Overall: The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, but an article from the National Development and Reform Commission boosts market sentiment, and the rebound situation should be monitored [6]. Report Recommendations Copper - For the SHFE Copper 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 105,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 95,000 yuan/ton [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - For the SHFE Aluminum 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 22,800 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Alumina - For the Alumina 2605 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Weekly Market Performance - Provided the week - on - week cumulative price change statistics for various metals from December 22 - 26 [11]. Weekly News - The National Development and Reform Commission published an article on promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, emphasizing management and layout for resource - constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting [12]. - The China Copper Industry Joint Procurement Group (CSPT) stopped setting a guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026, reflecting a new stage in the bargaining power game between domestic smelters and miners [12]. - Jiangxi Copper announced an offer to acquire SolGold plc, valuing the target company at about £867 million [12]. - Gree Electric stated it has no immediate plan to replace copper with aluminum in air - conditioners due to performance differences [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the approved storage capacities of several alumina delivery warehouses and added a new storage point [12]. 02 Macro Analysis Domestic Market - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of these enterprises decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. Overseas Market - The initial estimate of the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. After the GDP data release, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased [16]. 03 Non - ferrous Market Analysis Copper - Spot Market: Provided data on copper premiums, refined - scrap copper price differences, and other indicators [21]. - Futures Market: Presented the position data of SHFE copper futures, options, and international copper futures [24]. - Overseas Market: Analyzed the price differences between US and LME copper, LME copper premiums, and the relationship with the US dollar index [27]. - Market Inventory: Showed the inventory data of SHFE copper, Shanghai bonded area copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [30]. - Downstream Consumption: As of December 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 14.96% week - on - week, and the domestic major refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate was 60.73%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points [34]. Aluminum - Domestic Market: Provided data on A00 aluminum ingot premiums, aluminum alloy price differences, and social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Futures Market: Presented the position data of aluminum futures, options, and alumina futures and options [39]. - Overseas Market: Analyzed LME aluminum premiums, the relationship with the US dollar index, and LME aluminum total inventory [42]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of December 25, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 60.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 percentage points [44]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: As of December 26, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week to a new high for the year [48]. - Cost and Profit: Analyzed the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and its relationship with raw material prices [51]. Alumina - Spot Market: Provided data on alumina prices in different regions, the average spot price index, and raw material prices [54]. - Futures Market: Presented the relationship between alumina inventory futures, futures closing prices, and the prices of related products [57]. - Market Supply and Demand: As of December 25, the alumina supply was stable, and the demand slightly increased due to the new production capacity release of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [60]. - Cost and Profit: As of December 25, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,940.91 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 227.82 yuan/ton [61].