KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Changjiang Securities·2025-12-29 10:45Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - Since December 2025, the price difference between original boxes and loose bottles of Moutai has narrowed to within 20 yuan, indicating a more balanced consumption structure across different scenarios [2][22] - The price decline of loose bottles is less than that of original boxes, driven by increasing demand for Moutai as prices decrease, with loose bottles serving as a primary vehicle for mass consumption [2][22] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the prices of loose and original box Moutai, with significant divergence occurring post-January 2021 due to changes in sales policies [6][17] - The introduction of policies to control supply and stabilize prices has led to a convergence in pricing between different Moutai products, including the recent alignment of kilogram Moutai prices with those of original and loose bottles [7][24] Summary by Sections Understanding Price Convergence of Original and Loose Moutai - The price gap between original and loose Moutai bottles averaged 200-300 yuan before 2021, expanding to around 700 yuan at the beginning of 2021 due to changes in sales policies [6][17] - The price difference peaked at over 1100 yuan per bottle in 2021, but has since narrowed significantly due to measures taken by Moutai to curb speculative pricing [20][22] Understanding Price Convergence of Kilogram Moutai and Regular Moutai - Kilogram Moutai has shown greater price stability compared to loose and original box Moutai, reflecting a higher actual consumption rate [7][24] - Since early 2025, the prices of original and loose Moutai have been converging, influenced by increased supply of kilogram Moutai and a decrease in non-consumption demand [24] Current Outlook on Moutai Pricing - Short-term expectations indicate a potential for Moutai prices to stabilize within a narrow range, while long-term trends will be influenced by economic growth and supply dynamics [8][27] - The demand side is closely linked to factors such as household income and consumer confidence, while the supply side is affected by Moutai's pricing strategies [27][28]