金融期货早评-20251230

Group 1: Market Overview - The report focuses on various financial and commodity markets, including macroeconomics, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and commodities [1][2][3] - The overseas market shows strong GDP growth in the US, while the domestic market emphasizes expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The end - of - year market is affected by factors such as low liquidity, holiday effects, and policy expectations [4] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to end the year stably after a temporary halt in its sharp rise. The focus is on the effect of exchange - rate - stabilizing policies [3][4] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on the previous trading day, down 13 basis points, and the mid - price was 7.0331, up 27 basis points [3] Group 3: Stocks - The stock index faces pressure to break through at high levels and is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum in the short term. After the New Year, there is a greater probability of a spring rally [4][5] - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.38 on the previous trading day, and the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly [4] Group 4: Bonds - The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term. Although the bond futures fell sharply on Monday, the view is to hold mid - term long positions and intervene in short - term long positions on dips [5][6] - The bond futures opened sharply lower on Monday and then fluctuated narrowly. The overnight funds were loose, but the cross - year funds were tight [5] Group 5: Commodities - Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices dropped significantly due to factors such as profit - taking, exchange risk - control measures, and pre - holiday risk aversion. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term risks are high [7][8][9] - Gold and silver prices also experienced a sharp decline. The short - term is weak, and the long - term is still optimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions or clear positions in the short term [10][11][12] Group 6: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices fell due to pre - holiday profit - taking. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend, and it is recommended to watch more and act less before the holiday [13][15] - Aluminum faces short - term adjustment pressure, while alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up performance [15][16] - Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, and tin are expected to fluctuate widely, and lithium carbonate is recommended to focus on long - term value and avoid short - term risks [17][20][21] Group 7: Commodities - Black Metals - Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with support from the cost side and pressure from weak demand [28][29] - Iron ore prices fluctuate with high supply and rigid demand balancing each other [30] - Coking coal and coke are facing a fourth - round price cut, and the future trend depends on supply and demand changes [31][33] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [34][35] Group 8: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices fell due to market sentiment, while offset paper prices rose due to cost support. It is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] - LPG has near - term support but is under pressure in the medium - term [41][42] - PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips face a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. It is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes and cost factors [43][45][48] - Methanol is recommended to buy at low prices, while PP, PE, pure benzene - styrene, and other products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [49][53][60] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [61][64][65] - Logs are expected to fluctuate without clear upward or downward drivers, and propylene is recommended to pay attention to marginal changes [68][69][70] Group 9: Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [72][73][74] - Oilseeds show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to try a long - short spread strategy with a light position [75][76] - Oils are expected to fluctuate, with palm oil being relatively strong in the sector [77][78] - Cotton prices may experience a short - term correction but have long - term upward potential [79][80] - Sugar prices face increasing upward pressure in the short term [81][82] - Eggs are in a situation of over - capacity in the long term, and it is recommended to participate in a long - position rebound with a light position [83] - Apples face short - term upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a retracement to go long [84][85] - Red dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to pre - holiday procurement [86][87]