COL(SZ:300364) China Post Securities·2025-12-30 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is set to benefit from the ongoing wave of overseas expansion and plans to accelerate its global strategy through a proposed H-share listing in Hong Kong [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 455 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.43%, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of its overseas short drama platform, FlareFlow [5]. - The overseas short drama market is projected to reach a size of 3.2 billion USD in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 200%, indicating a high-growth phase for the industry [6]. - The company has a strong position in the overseas short drama sector, with its platform ReelShort being a market leader in terms of downloads and revenue [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 23.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 17.2 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 729 million shares, with 660 million shares in circulation [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 38.5%, indicating a relatively stable financial structure [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -100 million yuan in 2025, improving to 82 million yuan in 2026 and 313 million yuan in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.14 yuan in 2025, turning positive at 0.11 yuan in 2026 and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [10].