Baosteel(SH:600019) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-30 05:30Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Transition finance and green finance form an effective complementary structure, with transition finance targeting high carbon-emitting enterprises for their low-carbon transformation through technological upgrades, while green finance focuses on pure green projects [2][9]. - The international development of transition finance is driven by the EU carbon tax policy, entering a rapid development phase since 2023, with a historical progression through three stages: global consensus (2015-2019), framework establishment (2020-2022), and rapid development (2023-present) [2][14]. - China officially proposed the concept of "low-carbon transition" in 2024, with a series of supportive policies following, including the revision of the "Green Industry Guidance Catalog" to focus on low-carbon transition industries [2][17]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan shifts China's energy management from "dual control of energy consumption" to "dual control of carbon emissions," with an estimated demand for green low-carbon investment reaching 487 trillion yuan over the next 30 years, of which 60% is related to low-carbon transition [2][20]. - Mainstream international transition finance products include Sustainable Linked Loans (SLL), Sustainable Linked Bonds (SLB), and transition bonds, with SLL and SLB directly linking financing costs to sustainability goals [2][25]. Summary by Sections Transition Finance vs Green Finance - Transition finance supports high carbon-emitting projects for low-carbon transformation, while green finance supports energy-saving and emission-reducing projects [9][8]. International Development of Transition Finance - The development of international transition finance has progressed through three stages: consensus (2015-2019), framework establishment (2020-2022), and rapid development (2023-present) [14][10]. China's Transition Finance Development - China's transition bonds include transition bonds and low-carbon transition-linked bonds, with the latter dominating in issuance and financing amounts [3][50]. - The issuance of low-carbon transition-linked bonds reached 104, with a net financing amount of 572 billion yuan, while transition bonds totaled 32 with approximately 207 billion yuan [3][50]. - The main issuers of transition bonds have shifted from state-owned enterprises to local state-owned enterprises, with a corresponding decline in credit ratings from AAA to AA [3][72]. Mainstream Products in Transition Finance - The report identifies three main products in transition finance: transition bonds, SLL, and SLB, with specific characteristics and restrictions on fund usage [25][27]. - Transition bonds are specifically allocated for low-carbon transition projects, while SLL and SLB link financing costs to sustainability targets [25][27]. Advantages and Challenges of Transition Bonds - Despite higher costs, transition bonds offer advantages such as expedited review processes, potential government interest subsidies, and flexible interest rate adjustments linked to ESG goals [3][96][94]. - Transition bonds face challenges including higher issuance costs and a shift in issuer credit ratings, impacting their attractiveness compared to traditional corporate bonds [3][84][89].