美联储会议纪要凸显央行分歧，美国石油钻机数量回升

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Market: A - shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with weakened upward momentum, but the early release of 62.5 billion yuan in consumer product national subsidy funds in 2026 may boost consumption in Q1, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend without volume contraction. The Fed's December meeting minutes show increased internal differences on interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a stronger US dollar index. The bond market is still dominated by institutional behavior, and the risk of a rapid market decline cannot be completely resolved until the allocation of ultra - long bonds is significantly strengthened [1][3][21]. - Commodity Market: Steel prices continue to fluctuate, lacking a clear driving force before the New Year's Day holiday. Short - term callback pressure is expected for lithium carbonate, but there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips. Oil prices are fluctuating strongly, with Venezuela reducing production due to blockades and an increase in the number of US oil rigs [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices had a weak rebound, but gave back gains after the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Silver had a significant rebound, but its sustainability is weak due to pre - holiday position - reducing. The Fed meeting shows large internal differences, with little change in the market's interest rate cut expectations in 2026. Gold lacks continuous upward momentum in the short term, and there is a risk of a phased decline after the holiday [11]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions before the holiday and beware of the risk of decline due to increased short - term volatility in precious metals [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's inflation slowed in December 2025, with an average inflation rate of 2.1%. The Fed's December meeting minutes show increased differences among officials on interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a stronger US dollar index [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 20 - city housing price index rose 1.31% year - on - year in October, slightly higher than expected. The Fed plans to purchase about 220 billion US dollars of Treasury bills in the next 12 months. The US stock index is oscillating at a high level, and the market risk appetite remains high due to optimistic expectations of future liquidity release [17][18]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The early release of 62.5 billion yuan in consumer product national subsidy funds in 2026 may boost consumption in Q1. A - shares are in a narrow - range consolidation, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend without volume contraction [20][21]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly in long positions of various stock indices [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 12 - month manufacturing PMI is expected to be weak. The bond market is still dominated by institutional behavior, and the risk of a rapid market decline cannot be completely resolved until the allocation of ultra - long bonds is significantly strengthened. There is a need to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [24][25]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, lacking a clear driving force before the New Year's Day holiday. The pressure on finished products is moderate, and there is no inventory accumulation. The pressure on the decline of hot metal is limited. Attention should be paid to export changes at the beginning of the year, and a volatile approach is recommended in the short term [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile approach to steel prices and hold light positions before the holiday [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the central - southern market is running weakly and steadily. The supply of coking coal is shrinking, and the demand is slightly increasing. The price of coke is under pressure, and the futures may follow the weak oscillation. - Investment advice: Coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal prices are stabilizing in the short term. The downstream daily consumption is average, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. Overall, coal prices are still weak [32]. - Investment advice: The overall coal price is weak due to limited demand and high absolute inventory [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore continues to oscillate, with strong overall support but limited upward space. The inventory of steel mills' raw materials is low, and there is short - term support due to the expected slight increase in hot metal and pre - holiday inventory replenishment by downstream [34]. - Investment advice: There is short - term support due to low raw material inventory in steel mills, expected increase in hot metal, and pre - holiday inventory replenishment [34]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine has successfully carried out a joint trial run. Zijin Mining's net profit in 2025 is expected to increase by 59% - 62% year - on - year. Short - term macro concerns are alleviated, and the domestic inventory is rising. - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has locked in the supply of 500 - 600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources. Indonesia plans to reduce the RKAB quota of nickel ore, and there may be a tax on cobalt at the mine end. The current price is close to the full cost of NPI, and there are factors restricting price increases. - Investment advice: The market is expected to return to oscillation. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there is still significant upward space [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining plans to achieve an output of 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026. There may be short - term callback pressure, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [41][42]. - Investment advice: There is short - term callback pressure, and pay attention to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a high level, with an increase in LME inventory and a marginal decrease in social inventory. The supply and demand are both weak, and the upward space of the lead price is limited. - Investment advice: Wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc product tariff in 2026 remains unchanged. The zinc price is oscillating strongly, mainly driven by macro sentiment. The short - term demand is recovering, and the mid - term price is still likely to rise. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips for unilateral trading. Wait and see for calendar spread arbitrage and adopt a reverse arbitrage approach for cross - market arbitrage [48][49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Nvidia has invested 5 billion US dollars in Intel. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. - Investment advice: There may be short - term adjustments, and pay attention to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [53]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Venezuela is reducing oil production due to US blockades, and the number of US oil rigs is increasing. Oil prices are oscillating strongly, supported by risk premiums [56]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts in the short term [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of carbon emissions is rising, mainly due to the potential quota carry - over demand of some enterprises in newly entered industries. The short - term market risk is high [58]. - Investment advice: The short - term market risk is high [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Trump threatens to strike Iran if it rebuilds its nuclear program. The methanol price is rising, and a bullish approach is recommended [60]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach with a target price of around 2250 yuan/ton [61][62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in the southwest market is stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The inventory of glass factories is high, and it is expected to accumulate in the future [63]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach in the medium term and short the far - month contracts on rallies [64]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market is flat. The glass futures price is rising due to rumors of environmental protection requirements for fuel transformation. There is uncertainty in the implementation of the transformation [65][66]. - Investment advice: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 yuan/ton in 2026. Short on rallies and pay attention to the potential impact of fuel transformation on supply [67].