Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-31 03:14Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Q3 US GDP exceeded expectations with a 4.3% growth, and the job market showed resilience, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but November economic data indicated weak domestic demand, still needing policy support. Attention should be paid to domestic PMI data and Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair [2]. - The breakthrough of the RMB against the US dollar at the 7.00 mark may end the low - volatility forex market. The RMB is likely to end the year stably, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - Short - term stock indices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed. Bonds are not pessimistic in the medium - term. The container shipping European line futures are expected to be volatile, with the near - term contract range - bound and the far - term contract under pressure [6][8][11]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are recommended to be held lightly during the holiday. Gold and silver are expected to be weak in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper is recommended to be observed more and traded less before the holiday. Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, while alumina and cast aluminum alloy have their own characteristics [15][18][21]. - Zinc has limited upside space. Nickel - stainless steel is driven by supply reduction expectations and demand improvement, but it is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday. Tin has rebounded from oversold conditions and is expected to be volatile. Carbonate lithium has long - term value support and is recommended to be bought on dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are gradually rising, and long positions can be considered on dips [25][26][29]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. Steel products are expected to be range - bound, with iron ore oscillating, coking coal and coke facing uncertain supply, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese being volatile and bullish in the short - term [34][36][41]. - Pulp and offset paper can be observed first, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly. Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level. LPG is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term. PTA - PX has a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. MEG - bottle chips are under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized. Methanol can be bought at a low level [45][49][58]. - PP and PE are expected to be bottom - oscillating. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be bullish and oscillating. Fuel oil has weak cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil has stable cracking. Urea can be bought in the far - month contract. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are affected by supply and demand and market sentiment [63][66][73]. - Logs can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used. Propylene is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [79][80]. - For agricultural products, pigs' long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail. Oilseeds are strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. Oils are widely oscillating under supply pressure. Cotton may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar maintains a balance. Eggs are generally bearish. Apples are expected to be oscillating. Red dates are expected to be range - bound at a low level [84][85][90] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Market Information: Central rural work conference focuses on agricultural technology; 2026 national subsidy plan is released; Fed meeting minutes show divided views on rate cuts; Trump may sue the current Fed chair and will announce the next nominee in January [1][4]. - Core Logic: Overseas, the US economy is strong, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but domestic demand is weak, still needing policy support [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB broke through the 7.00 mark, and it is expected to end the year stably. Attention should be paid to exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - Stock Indices: The stock indices were volatile and bullish last trading day. Policy signals are positive, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed [6][7]. - Bonds: The bond market was range - bound on Tuesday. The mid - term view on bonds is not pessimistic, and long positions can be held during the holiday [7][8]. - Container Shipping European Line: The futures market closed down yesterday. The market is concerned about the sustainability of price increases, and the near - term contract is range - bound while the far - term contract is under pressure [9][11]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Platinum rose and palladium oscillated last night. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to hold lightly during the holiday [14][15]. - Gold & Silver: Gold oscillated and silver rose. The short - term view is weak, and the long - term view is bullish. It is recommended to reduce long positions or stay out of the market during the holiday [16][18]. - Copper: Copper prices rose last night. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe more and trade less before the holiday [19][21]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, alumina is expected to be range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the impact of related varieties [22][23]. - Zinc: Zinc prices were bullish last trading day. The upside space is limited, and it is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short - term [25]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose yesterday. The supply is expected to shrink in 2026, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday [25][26]. - Tin: Tin prices rebounded from oversold conditions last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [27]. - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price rose yesterday. The long - term value is supported, and it is recommended to buy on dips [28][29]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose yesterday. The industrial silicon market is in a supply - demand weak state, and polysilicon prices are showing signs of warming. Long positions can be considered on dips [30][32]. - Lead: Lead prices oscillated narrowly last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [33][34]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel products oscillated yesterday. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are expected to be range - bound [35][36]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices followed other metals up and down. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices are expected to be range - bound [37][38]. - Coking Coal & Coke: Coal and coke prices opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are facing uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery in January [39][40]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: Ferroalloys were bullish and oscillating yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating in the short - term, but the upside space may be limited [41][42]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: Pulp futures rebounded yesterday, and offset paper futures rose. The market is still neutral, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly [44][46]. - Crude Oil: Crude oil futures closed down yesterday. OPEC+ is expected to continue to suspend the production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level [47][49]. - LPG: LPG prices rose yesterday. It is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term [50][51]. - PTA - PX: PX supply is expected to remain high, and PTA supply is uncertain. PTA processing fees are expected to rise, but the space is limited. PX is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [52][55]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: MEG supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. It is under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized [56][58]. - Methanol: Methanol prices rose sharply. It is recommended to buy at a low level [59][60]. - PP: PP prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the scale of plant maintenance in January [61][63]. - PE: PE prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with supply pressure relieved and demand weakening [64][66]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating, but high - buying is not recommended [67][69]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil prices closed at 2473 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is abundant, and the cracking is weak [70]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at 2977 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is improving, and the cracking is stable [71][72]. - Urea: Urea prices closed at 1756 yesterday. It is recommended to buy in the far - month contract [72][73]. - Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda: Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda prices rose yesterday. Soda ash is affected by new capacity and demand; glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory; caustic soda is affected by market sentiment and downstream demand [73][76]. - Logs: Log prices closed at 776 yesterday. It can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used [77][79]. - Propylene: Propylene prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [80]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: Pig futures prices rose yesterday. The long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail [83][84]. - Oilseeds: The external market was weak, and the domestic near - month market was strong. It is recommended to try a 3 - 5 positive spread lightly [85][86]. - Oils: International oils are under supply pressure, and domestic oils are oscillating. Palm oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong, and soybean oil is weak [87][88]. - Cotton: Cotton futures prices were mixed. The short - term may correct, and the long - term may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [89][90]. - Sugar: Sugar futures prices were mixed. The short - term upward pressure is increasing [91][93]. - Eggs: Egg futures prices fell yesterday. It is generally bearish in the long - term, and long positions can be held lightly for a rebound [94]. - Apples: Apple futures prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be oscillating, and long positions can be bought on dips [95][96]. - Red Dates: Red date futures prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [97][98].