Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The recovery of raw milk prices combined with the reversal of beef prices is expected to accelerate the company's profit release [4] - Continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory is leading to a recovery in raw milk prices in 2026, with a cumulative decrease of 540,000 heads, representing an 8.1% decline over the past 20 months [4][13] - The dairy industry is enhancing deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, which is crucial for balancing market supply [14] - The average wholesale price of beef in China has increased by 15.79% from February to December, which is expected to enhance the company's profit from culling cows [5][17] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 at 20.805 billion, 2026 at 21.722 billion, and 2027 at 22.982 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80% respectively [8][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.12 billion, 16.78 billion, and 28.56 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with significant year-on-year growth of 174.12%, 227.65%, and 70.19% respectively [8][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.13, 0.43, and 0.73 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [10][22] Industry Dynamics - The dairy industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with major companies investing in deep processing projects to enhance their product offerings [14] - The reduction in dairy cow inventory is expected to stabilize raw milk prices, which will positively impact the company's profitability [8][13] - The company is projected to benefit from the increasing prices of culled cows, with profit increments estimated at 0.87 billion, 1.55 billion, and 2.75 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [17][21]
优然牧业（09858）：奶价复苏叠加牛肉价格反转，公司利润有望加速释放