Changjiang Securities(SZ:000783) Changjiang Securities·2025-12-31 05:41Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [25]. Core Insights - Accelerating the development of digital RMB is a core path to respond to international monetary system competition and promote the internationalization of the RMB [2][7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a new action plan to strengthen the management service system and related financial infrastructure for digital RMB, with a new measurement framework and operational mechanism set to be implemented on January 1, 2026 [2][7]. - The digital RMB will transition from being classified as digital cash (M0) to a deposit liability of commercial banks (M1), allowing banks to pay interest to real-name customers and participate in monetary creation [7][8]. Summary by Sections Development Achievements and Challenges - Since the launch of the first pilot in 2019, digital RMB has expanded nationwide, with a cumulative transaction amount of 16.7 trillion yuan and 230 million personal wallets opened by the end of November 2025 [6]. - Challenges include the maturity of domestic third-party payment systems, which reduces public enthusiasm for using digital RMB, and the dual-layer operation system that limits commercial banks' incentives to promote digital RMB due to unequal responsibilities and benefits [6]. Policy Background for Digital RMB Upgrade - The recent upgrade of digital RMB is aimed at enhancing its monetary creation and interest-bearing functions, as highlighted by the PBOC's action plan [7]. - The current M0 scale is 13.74 trillion yuan, with digital RMB first included in M0 statistics in December 2022, showing a balance of 13.61 billion yuan at that time [7]. Transition from Cash to Deposit - The shift to a deposit model is expected to increase the holding willingness of customers if digital RMB can earn interest, thus boosting transaction volumes [8]. - For commercial banks, treating digital RMB as a stable deposit liability could enhance their willingness to promote it by allowing them to earn interest rate spreads [8]. Future Development Focus - Key areas to monitor include the formal release of the action plan detailing the measurement framework and management system for digital RMB [9]. - Cross-border payments are identified as a significant area for development, with ongoing efforts to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, including partnerships with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [9]. Mixed Architecture Development Route - Unlike many overseas practices, the digital RMB adopts a mixed architecture of "account system + blockchain + smart contracts," balancing centralized management advantages with decentralized transparency [10].