顺丰同城（09699）：深度研究报告：解码顺丰系列（21）：外卖大战点燃即时零售万物到家新征程：内外双飞轮看顺丰同城

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.1, representing a potential upside of 64% from the current price of HKD 10.98 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "takeaway war" has ignited a new journey in instant retail, termed "everything to home," highlighting the significant growth potential in the instant retail sector [4][21]. - The company is identified as the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, benefiting from the synergy of its independent third-party status and the broader ecosystem of SF Express [8][9]. - Financial performance shows a continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margins improving from -36.4% to 0.93% over the same period [8][9]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Market - Instant retail is characterized by online ordering and offline fulfillment, aiming to meet local immediate demands, with a projected market size of RMB 781 billion in 2024, growing at 20.15% year-on-year [4][38]. - The competition among major players like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has intensified, with significant subsidies driving daily order volumes to record highs [13][14][15]. - The report outlines three main service models in instant retail: front warehouses, comprehensive instant retail platforms, and store-warehouse integrated self-operated models [23][26][30]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as the leading third-party instant delivery service provider, leveraging the SF Express brand reputation and service capabilities to create a synergistic effect [8][9]. - The internal and external growth mechanisms, termed "dual flywheel," are driving significant revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in net profit from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 707 million by 2027 [9][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 15.746 billion in 2024 to RMB 32.731 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 8.1 billion by 2027, with a corresponding adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [9][5].