Caitong Securities(SH:601108) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-31 10:57Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, convertible bonds performed excellently, with equity characteristics contributing the main revenue. The convertible bond market's performance was the third - highest in terms of revenue since 2010 and the best since 2021. The contribution ratio of the underlying stocks and valuation to the rise and fall was about 7:4, similar to 2021. Compared with mainstream stock indices, the convertible bond index showed the property of "attack when the market rises and defend when the market falls", with Sharpe ratio and Calmar ratio second only to micro - cap stocks [2][6]. - In 2025, the supply of convertible bonds was in the ascendant. Over 230 billion yuan of convertible bonds were delisted, reaching the highest scale since 2018, with banks having the largest delisting scale. The primary market issuance process accelerated in the second half of the year, but the issuance of large - scale convertible bonds remained cautious. Listed companies were more inclined to issue private placements [2]. - In 2025, the demand for convertible bonds was differentiated, and the ETF share reached a new high. The logic of the "fixed - income asset shortage" continued, and the demand structure of institutions for convertible bonds changed significantly. The direct holding scale of convertible bonds by institutions such as insurance and annuities was at a historically low level, while the holding scale of convertible bonds by funds, especially ETFs, reached a historical high [2]. - In 2025, the game of convertible bond terms was characterized by "high return and high risk". The probabilities of downward revision and non - call of convertible bonds were at historically low levels, but the number of times of triggering call/downward revision was relatively high since 2019, indicating an increase in the intensity of the game. The odds of the downward revision game were at a historical high, with photovoltaic convertible bonds and near - maturity convertible bonds being the highlights of the whole year. The profit - loss ratio of the call game deteriorated compared with the previous year but was still at a historical high [2]. - In 2025, the risks of convertible bonds were better than expected, and the impact of ratings decreased. Only Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets triggered the substantial default risk, and the risk performance was better than investors' expectations. Although there were still many convertible bonds with rating adjustments, the impact on pricing was significantly weakened, and the market was generally "desensitized" to ratings [2]. Summary According to the Directory 2025, How Did the Convertible Bond Market Perform? 2021 - 2025: The Best - Performing Year Since 2021, with Equity Income as the Main Contributor - Vertically, the convertible bond holding experience in 2025 could rank among the top four years since 2010. As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 491.83 points, up 18.6% from the end of 2024. It was the third - highest revenue - earning year since 2010 and the best since 2021. The maximum drawdown was about 6%, the annualized volatility was less than 10%, and the Sharpe ratio was 1.92, the Calmar ratio was 3.01, achieving high returns with low drawdown and medium - low volatility [6]. - In terms of revenue decomposition, the contribution ratio of the underlying stocks and valuation to the rise and fall in 2025 was about 7:4. The change in the underlying stocks contributed 14 percentage points to the index return, and the change in valuation contributed about 8 percentage points, similar to 2021 [9]. - Horizontally, the return performance of the convertible bond index was slightly weaker, but the cost - performance was prominent. Compared with the stock indices in the same period, its return was only stronger than that of the Shanghai Composite Index, Juchao Large - cap Index, and Guozheng Value Index, but significantly weaker than that of the micro - cap and ChiNext Index. However, in terms of Sharpe ratio and Calmar ratio, it was only slightly weaker than the Wind Micro - cap Index, showing the property of "attack when the market rises and defend when the market falls" [13]. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Volatility Throughout the Year, and the Year - End Increase Converged - First stage (Early 2025 - March 2025): Driven by the spring rally and supported by AI + robot innovation and low initial valuations, the convertible bond market had a dual - wheel - driven market of valuation and the underlying stocks, with a maximum index increase of 6.15% by the end of February. Low - price convertible bonds performed strongly, and the concern about credit risk events was reversed [19]. - Second stage (March 2025 - Early April 2025): After the Two Sessions, the spring rally ended, and the market returned to the trading of annual report expectations. Market sentiment cooled down, and the convertible bond valuation peaked and declined. The intensification of Sino - US trade disputes led to a stock market correction on the first trading day after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 4.05%, with the automotive, communication, and computer industries leading the decline [19]. - Third stage (Early April 2025 - Mid - June 2025): After the market correction on April 7, state funds such as Central Huijin entered the market, providing liquidity support. The Sino - US tariff issue was in a "tug - of - war", and the market expectation improved. The valuations of the overseas and export sectors rebounded, but concerns about the ratings of the photovoltaic and other sectors with weak performance emerged [20]. - Fourth stage (End of June 2025 - End of August 2025): After the release of all rating results at the end of June, institutional funds increased their allocation of convertible bonds, and the convertible bond ETF share increased significantly. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry was implemented, and the photovoltaic convertible bonds rebounded. The A - share market was booming, driving the convertible bond market to its main uptrend. The convertible bond price and valuation reached new highs, and the market capacity decreased [20]. - Fifth stage (End of August 2025 - Present): At the end of August, institutions' profit - taking demand led to a decline in the convertible bond market. The positions of insurance and annuity institutions in convertible bonds decreased significantly. The supply of convertible bonds improved in September, but it was difficult to offset the shrinkage caused by conversion. The convertible bond valuation stabilized and rebounded after the adjustment at the end of August and reached a high level again in December [21][22]. In 2025, the Supply of the Convertible Bond Market was in the Ascendant The Market Capacity Declined to Around 500 Billion Yuan, and the Delisting Scale Reached a Historical High - In 2025, the number of delisted convertible bonds reached a historical high, and the market capacity decreased rapidly. By December 30, 2025, a total of 163 convertible bonds were delisted, with a total delisting scale of over 230 billion yuan, the peak since 2018. The banking industry had the largest delisting scale of 101.323 billion yuan, followed by non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment and new energy [23]. The Primary Issuance Had Mixed Results, with Small - Ticket Issuance Accelerating and Large - Ticket Issuance Still Difficult - The good aspect was that the primary market issuance process accelerated in the second half of 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average time from the announcement of the convertible bond plan to listing was about 320 days, the lowest since 2023 [25]. - The regulatory authorities were still relatively cautious about the issuance of medium - and large - scale convertible bonds. As of now, no convertible bonds with a scale of over 2 billion yuan announced in 2025 have been listed, while 8 convertible bonds with a scale of less than 2 billion yuan have been listed [28]. Subjectively, the Trend of Listed Companies Preferring Private Placements was More Prominent - The ratio of the number of convertible bond plans to private placement plans has been declining sharply since the refinancing new regulations in 2023. In 2025, 53 listed companies announced private placement plans, while only 9 announced convertible bond plans, with a ratio of 16.98%, far lower than the average level before 2023 [29]. In 2025, the Demand for Convertible Bonds was Differentiated, and the ETF Share Reached a New High - In 2025, the logic of the "fixed - income asset shortage" continued, but the demand structure of institutions for convertible bonds changed significantly. As of November 2025, the direct holding of convertible bonds by insurance and annuity institutions was at a historically low level since 2021, while the holding of convertible bonds by funds, especially ETFs, reached a historical high [32]. In 2025, the Game of Convertible Bond Terms was Characterized by "High Return and High Risk" The Overall Probability of Downward Revision and Non - call of Convertible Bonds in 2025 was at a Historical Low - In 2025, it was a "big year" for call, and the call probability increased. There were 131 call announcements and 149 non - call announcements, and the call: non - call ratio was 88%, the highest since 2020. - The intensity of the downward revision of convertible bonds in 2025 was second only to 2024, but the downward revision probability decreased. There were 68 downward revision proposal announcements and 510 non - downward revision announcements, and the downward revision: non - downward revision ratio was 13%, at a historically low level [36]. Downward Revision: There were Odds, and Photovoltaic Convertible Bonds and Near - Maturity Convertible Bonds were the Highlights of the Whole Year - In terms of odds, the return performance of the convertible bond downward revision game in 2025 was at a relatively high level in history. The average return after a downward revision proposal was 2.02%, the best since 2023, and the average return after an actual downward revision was 0.63%, at a relatively high level since 2019 [41]. - In terms of influencing factors, the downward revision probability of near - maturity convertible bonds was significantly higher. The downward revision probability was highly correlated with the remaining term, showing obvious monotonicity. The new energy industry had the most downward revisions, and although some convertible bonds did not succeed in conversion by the end of 2025, they achieved good returns, and the downward revision increased the possibility of future call [42]. Call: The Profit - Loss Ratio of the Game Deteriorated Compared with the Previous Year but was Still at a Historical High - In 2025, the call game fluctuated greatly, and the non - call return was higher than the historical average. The average return on the first day after the non - call announcement of convertible bonds was 2.29%, higher than the historical average since 2019. The average return on the first day after the call announcement was - 2.54%, and the profit - loss ratio was about 0.9, which deteriorated significantly compared with 2024 but was still at a historical high [48]. In 2025, the Risks of Convertible Bonds were Better than Expected, and the Impact of Ratings Decreased - In 2025, there were no serious default events in the convertible bond market, which was significantly better than investors' expectations. Although Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 triggered default risk in the fourth quarter, its underlying stock had been ST before the restructuring, and its convertible bond rating had also fallen below the investment grade [48]. - In terms of ratings, although there were still many convertible bonds with rating adjustments, the impact on pricing decreased significantly. By December 30, 2025, 42 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded and 40 were put on the rating watch list. However, the average decline of convertible bonds on the first trading day after the rating downgrade was only 0.01%, indicating that the market was generally "desensitized" to rating changes and the pricing was smoother [51].