HEILAN HOME(SH:600398) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-31 11:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.26 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is maintaining its leading position in the men's apparel sector while expanding its new business formats, which may take time to reflect in performance. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 0.46, 0.48, and 0.51 CNY respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025, which is above the industry average [7][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21,528 million CNY, with a slight decline to 20,957 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 21,610 million CNY in 2025, representing a 3.1% increase [8][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2,952 million CNY in 2023 to 2,159 million CNY in 2024, before gradually increasing to 2,470 million CNY by 2027 [8][11]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 18.4% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 13.9% by 2027 [8][11]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 6.13 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 6.09 to 8.78 CNY [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 29,441 million CNY and a net asset value per share of 3.75 CNY, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.6 [3][2]. Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its partnership with Adidas, aiming to create a "sports+" ecosystem and has opened over 500 Adidas stores, with expectations to exceed 700 by the end of the year [10]. - The overseas revenue is projected to reach 360 million CNY in 2024, marking a 30.8% year-on-year growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.3% from 2022 to 2024 [10]. Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue for Q3 2025 is reported at 2.46 billion CNY, showing a 3.0% year-on-year growth, with a gradual improvement in revenue growth rates over the quarters [10]. - The gross margin for the main brand is 45.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of direct sales [10].