南山铝业（600219）：稀缺电解铝成长标的，分红+回购彰显信心

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Nanshan Aluminum [3][9]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is positioned as a rare growth target in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with significant confidence demonstrated through dividends and share buybacks [2][8]. - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity in Indonesia, which is expected to contribute positively to its performance [8][9]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its ceiling, while global supply growth is slowing, suggesting potential upward pressure on aluminum prices in 2026 [9][11]. Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum focuses on high-end aluminum material manufacturing and operates a fully integrated aluminum processing industry chain, covering energy, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum profiles, and aluminum sheets [19]. - As of the end of 2025, the company has an alumina production capacity of 5.4 million tons, with 1.4 million tons in China and 4 million tons in Indonesia [19]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is 680,000 tons domestically, with plans for an additional 250,000 tons in Indonesia [19]. Financial Analysis - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 28.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 17.5%, while net profit is expected to be 3.47 billion yuan, down 1.2% [7]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 33.48 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery [7]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 17.56% as of Q3 2025, indicating strong financial health [33]. Industry Overview - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is approaching a limit of 45.53 million tons, with a current operational capacity of 44.43 million tons [37]. - The supply side is constrained by strict regulations and the need for capacity replacement, while overseas production is expected to face delays due to power supply issues [38][42]. - Demand for aluminum is being driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and electronics, which are compensating for weaker construction demand [51][54]. Key Highlights - The company is actively expanding its alumina production in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance its cost advantages and contribute to revenue growth [8][9]. - Nanshan Aluminum is committed to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% of distributable profits from 2024 to 2026 [8][35]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will reach 5 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.2x [9].