Vipshop(US:VIPS) HTSC·2026-01-04 03:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a 0.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2025, reaching 33.52 billion RMB, which aligns with the company's previous guidance of flat to +5% year-on-year [1][6] - Seasonal factors, such as warmer temperatures in December and a later Chinese New Year in 2026, may impact winter clothing sales and shift some consumer demand [1][3] - The company aims to enhance the service experience for its core SVIP users to maintain consumer loyalty and wallet share, while also considering promotional strategies to attract purchases [1] - The report highlights the importance of shareholder return initiatives in 2026, which could support the company's valuation [1] Revenue and Profitability - The report anticipates a 3.8% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q4 2025, reaching 68.7 billion RMB, with a narrowing gap between GMV growth and revenue growth [2] - The expected gross margin for Q4 2025 is 22.9%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points due to increased investments in user engagement [2] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to be 8.2% for Q4 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Conditions and Policy Impact - The report notes that online retail sales of physical goods in November 2025 grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with a decline in the growth rate for clothing and footwear categories [3] - The central economic work conference indicated that expanding domestic demand will be a priority in 2026, which could benefit the company as it operates in the discretionary consumer goods sector [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 0.1%, 2.6%, and 2.5% to 8.6 billion, 8.8 billion, and 9.1 billion RMB respectively, primarily due to lower gross margin expectations [4][12] - The target price for the company is set at $23.26, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 9x for 2026, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.6x [4][15]