策略周报：春季行情可能缓步启动-20260104

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index ended December 2025 with an "11 consecutive days of gains," primarily benefiting from a recovery in risk appetite and increased trading volume in ETFs focused on the CSI A500 [2][10] - The report suggests that the liquidity environment before the Spring Festival is likely to remain favorable, with the market expected to continue performing strongly, although some volatility may occur in January [10][17] - Historical data shows that the probability of market gains is highest in February, with seasonal patterns indicating that February, July, and November are the months with the highest likelihood of market increases [11][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that in years when the Spring Festival is later, the market may perform better before the festival compared to after, contrasting with earlier years where the opposite trend was observed [12][15] - It notes that significant fluctuations in the market during the first quarter are often influenced by major economic turning points or substantial changes in household funding [13][14] - The report emphasizes that the current market position is not low, with the Shanghai Composite Index currently at approximately the 35th percentile of the past decade, indicating a potential for gradual increases in the spring market [17][20] Group 3 - The report recommends increasing allocations to flexible assets in anticipation of the spring market, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors, which typically show significant excess returns during this period [22][24] - It suggests that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, may see increased earnings elasticity as resident funds flow into the market [26][24] - The report also indicates that the consumer sector may present investment opportunities, especially in new consumption models and sectors benefiting from policy catalysts [26][24]