国泰君安期货锡周报-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the tin price dropped by over 4.5% on a weekly basis. After the price decline, the fundamentals improved significantly. The domestic tin spot premium rebounded, and the weekly social inventory of tin decreased. After the holiday, the tin price may oscillate weakly. Looking forward to 2026, the tin price is expected to maintain a high level in the first quarter, possibly reaching above 350,000 yuan, but there is also a possibility of a peak - to - trough decline [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of -1 USD/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 850 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, while premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan increased [10][15]. - Spread: This week, the monthly structure of tin changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic social inventory of tin decreased by 858 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 889 tons. The LME inventory increased by 520 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 2.95% [25][30]. - Funds: As of this Friday, the settled funds of SHFE tin were 284,032 ten - thousand yuan, and the funds flowed out in the past 10 days [35]. - Transaction and Position: This week, the trading volume and position of SHFE tin increased slightly, with a significant increase in the position. The trading volume of LME tin rebounded slightly, and the position continued to rise. The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin rebounded slightly [37][42][47]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In October 2025, the tin concentrate output was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, the import volume was 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 21.69%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [52][53]. - Smelting: In November 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 66.2%, a slight increase from last week [58][60]. - Import: In November 2025, the domestic tin ingot import was 1,195 tons, the export was 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The tin ingot imported from Indonesia to China was 225 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 28,426 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - Consumption Volume: In November 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 14,066 tons [73]. - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The output and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August increased slightly [75]. - End - User Consumption: In November 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed results. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners declined. In October 2025, the consumption of household appliances and new energy showed a month - on - month rebound. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of the tin price [82][84][89].