Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-04 08:34Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility, but the overall expected impact is limited [11][12]. - U.S. weekly employment data has improved, and the economic surprise index has rebounded, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [14][15][16]. - The short - term "theoretical dollar" has rebounded, and the dollar index is in an undervalued position compared to the model. The dollar is expected to strengthen in the short - term after the New Year, with a short - term target of 99 - 99.5 [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury yields of various maturities showed different weekly changes. For example, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.3bp to 4.19% on January 2, 2026 [33][34]. - Major developed government bond yields also had weekly changes, such as the 10 - year German government bond yield increasing by 3.8bp to 2.90% [33][34]. Exchange Rate Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.46% to 98.4240 on January 2, 2026. Other major currencies had different weekly performances, like the euro falling 0.45% and the yen rising 0.17% [68][70]. Commodities - Global major commodities had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold fell 3.66%, while Shanghai copper rose 2.23% [110][111][112]. Overseas Equities - Global major indices had different weekly performances. The S&P 500 index fell 1.06%, while the European Stoxx600 index rose 1.26% [137][138][139]. - S&P index sub - sectors also had different weekly performances. The S&P energy index rose 3.00%, while the S&P optional consumer index fell 3.60% [140][141][142]. 2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and Asset Views Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility. Venezuela's current crude oil exports are 960,000 barrels per day, and its exports to China account for over 60% [11][13]. - U.S. weekly initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and continuing jobless claims decreased. The economic surprise index and hard - data surprise index rebounded [14][15][16]. Weekly Currency Group Scoring - Through the currency group scoring model, in the G10 currency group, the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone had relatively high comprehensive scores, while the euro and British pound had low scores. In the Asian currency group, the New Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso, Thai baht, and Indian rupee had high scores, and the CNY and CNH had short - term score differentiation [28][29][30]. FICC Asset Views - Dollar: In the short - term, it is expected to strengthen, with a target of 99 - 99.5. In the long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108, and there is an upward risk [31]. - Non - U.S. Exchange Rates: In the short - term, based on scoring, different currencies have different performances. In the long - term, the Japanese yen spot exchange rate is significantly undervalued [31]. - USD/CNH: In the short - term, the RMB has a seasonal strengthening trend, but the appreciation space is limited. In the long - term, the RMB is undervalued in the exchange - rate valuation model, and the annual low is expected to be in the range of 6.85 - 6.95, with a high of 7.20 [31]. - 10 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield: In the short - term, it challenges the 4.20% short - term resistance level. If it breaks through, it can reach 4.30 - 4.35% technically. In the long - term, the central level is around 4.20%, with an upward risk [31]. - 2 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the support level is around 3.20%, and the target is 3.68%. There is a risk of a "bear steepening" of the yield curve in the second half of the year [31]. - London Gold Spot: The Venezuela incident may stimulate safe - haven sentiment, which is beneficial to gold. After the holiday, the gold - silver ratio may continue to repair upwards [31]. - London Silver Spot: It is expected to build an oscillation platform at a high level first, waiting for a 20% increase later. The target in the first quarter of 2026 is 90 - 100 US dollars per ounce [31]. 3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - It includes real - time GDP models, GDP sub - items, and sector economic surprise indices of the U.S., as well as economic surprise indices of the U.S., Europe, and China [192][196]. Financial Conditions - It involves the central bank's balance sheet and financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet, G4 central banks' balance - sheet - to - GDP ratios, and financial conditions indices of the U.S. and the eurozone [200][203]. Fiscal Policy - It includes U.S. federal government fiscal expenditure and revenue sub - items, government debt issuance, and the government deficit - to - GDP ratio [208][213]. Employment Market - It tracks U.S. employment market data on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, job vacancies, and unemployment claims [216][220]. Inflation Indicators - It analyzes U.S. inflation data, including inflation breakdown, core drivers, and inflation expectations [224][226][229]. Consumer Demand - It tracks U.S. consumer data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt [233][240][247]. Cycle Positioning - It tracks industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as U.S. wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventories and inventory - to - sales ratios [255][264]. Credit Cycle - It tracks U.S. credit conditions, including corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [268][270]. Transportation and Logistics - It tracks logistics data between China and the U.S., Europe and the U.S., as well as aviation, supply - chain indices, trucks, and shipping [272][277][279]. Real Estate Market - It includes the U.S. real - estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real - estate market data [287][292]. Eurozone - It includes macro - overviews, cycle positioning, and relative - strength analysis of the eurozone, such as deficit rates, inflation, and PMI indicators [297][305][314].