一月面临累库压力，关注短期回调风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In January, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the short - term callback risk. The lithium salt prices showed a strong trend last week (12/22 - 12/26), with significant price increases in futures and spot prices. However, the week of (12/29 - 12/31) saw a high - level callback in lithium salt futures prices, while the spot prices continued to rise. The SMM weekly inventory reduction amplitude continued to slow down, with upstream and downstream continuing to reduce inventory and the trading link accumulating inventory. In January, both supply and demand are expected to weaken marginally. Downstream cathode material factories have announced production cuts, which may lead to inventory accumulation and short - term price corrections. For trading strategies, early long positions can be gradually closed for profit, and in the medium term, the idea of buying on dips can still be adopted [2][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. January Faces Inventory Accumulation Pressure, Pay Attention to Short - Term Callback Risk - Price Changes: In the week of 12/22 - 12/26, LC2601 and LC2605 futures prices increased by 16.5% and 17.2% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices increased by 14.6% and 14.9% respectively. In the week of 12/29 - 12/31, LC2601 and LC2605 futures prices decreased by 6.1% and 6.8% respectively, while SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices increased by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide also showed corresponding changes [2][11] - Fundamentals: The SMM weekly inventory reduction amplitude continued to slow down, with a reduction of 168 tons. The supply side increased by 259 tons in weekly production. In January 2026, lithium salt production is expected to decrease by 1230 tons to 97,970 tons. Downstream cathode material factories plan to cut production, with ternary cathode production expected to decline by 4.43% and lithium - iron cathode production by 10.03% in January, which may lead to inventory accumulation [3][12] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sichuan Gongchuang Lithium - New Energy Project: The 10.5 - billion - yuan lithium - battery project of Sichuan Gongchuang Lithium - New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was approved, with a planned annual production of 140,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [13] - Shengxin Lithium Energy's Acquisition: Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan, aiming to increase its control over Huirong Mining, which owns the Murong lithium mine with 989,600 tons of Li2O resources [13] - Zijin Mining's Production Plan: Zijin Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan, with a lithium carbonate equivalent output of about 25,000 tons. In 2026, it plans to produce 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [14] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Prices Rise with the Market - Lithium concentrate prices increased, with the lithium spodumene concentrate spot average price (6%, CIF China) rising from $1,490/ton to $1,548/ton, a 3.9% increase [12] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Slight Increase in Production, Marginal Slowdown in Inventory Reduction Slope - Production: SMM weekly production increased by 259 tons, with contributions from different sources such as salt lakes, spodumene, mica, and recycling [3][12] - Inventory: The SMM weekly inventory reduction amplitude slowed down, with upstream and downstream reducing inventory and the trading link accumulating inventory [3][12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices Expected to Continue Rising - The spot average prices of lithium iron phosphate (power - type and energy - storage type) increased, and it is expected that the prices will continue to rise [12] 3.4 Terminal: High - Growth in Power Battery Installations - China's power battery installations maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle production and sales also showed positive year - on - year growth [54][56]