CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) HUAXI Securities·2026-01-04 14:59Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The domestic travel market during the New Year holiday showed steady growth, with 142 million domestic trips and total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the previous year [1][19] - The offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan performed exceptionally well, with sales reaching 712 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.9%, driven by policy benefits and diverse promotional activities [2][20] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors and service industry turning points supported by policies and technology, including duty-free shopping, silver-haired tourism, and parenting consumption [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.18 percentage points, while the retail index underperformed by 2.54 percentage points [9] - Key sectors included tourism retail with a 2.45% increase, while dining and general retail sectors saw declines [9][13] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The New Year holiday saw 142 million domestic trips and spending of 84.789 billion yuan, with significant growth in tourist attractions like Huangshan and Emei Mountain [1][19] - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached 712 million yuan, with a 128.9% increase in sales and 60.6% increase in shoppers compared to the previous year [2][20] 2.2 Investment and Financing - Recent financing events include a 30 million yuan angel round for a self-service bar operator, highlighting the demand for relaxed social environments [24][26] 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Wangfujing Group won a bid for a duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 113 million yuan for the first year [27] - China Duty Free Group signed a contract for a duty-free project at the airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 480.27 million yuan for the first year [28] 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Data - In November, retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year, with a 2.5% increase in retail sales excluding automobiles [32][39] - Online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales, showing a 5.7% year-on-year increase [33][38] 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in Q3 2025 was 177.53 tons, down 18.56% year-on-year, with jewelry demand significantly affected [49][54] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with high growth potential and policy support, including duty-free shopping, silver-haired tourism, and parenting consumption [3][59] - New consumption trends are expected to maintain demand, with leading companies in sectors like trendy toys and health products showing resilience [3][59]