碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注正极实际减产情况
Sinomine(SZ:002738) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-05 02:06- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate and suggests paying attention to the actual production cut situation of cathode materials [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 120,000 yuan, the trading volume is 5,997 lots, and the open interest is 11,285 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 392,450 lots, and the open interest is 490,194 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 20,281 lots [1] - Basis Data: The basis of spot - 2601 is - 1,500 yuan, spot - 2605 is - 3,080 yuan, 2601 - 2605 is - 1,580 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 3,000 yuan, and spot - CIF is 20,654 yuan [1] - Raw Material Data: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,548 yuan, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,465 yuan [1] - Lithium Salt Data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 114,600 yuan, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 117,373 yuan/ton, up 1,564 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [2] - Zhongkuang Resources' subsidiary's 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was officially ignited and put into trial production on January 2, 2026. The total investment is about 121 million yuan. After the project is completed and put into production, the total designed annual production capacity of battery - grade lithium salt will increase from 41,000 tons to 71,000 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [3]