Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-01-05 08:17Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea is in a phase of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity in 2026, and its price center will further decline but be supported by export policies. In the first half of the year, the urea market will fluctuate according to the demand rhythm during the agricultural peak season, and exports may be suspended. In the second half of the year, the price trend will be more policy - driven to relieve domestic supply pressure. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation during the domestic demand peak season, likely to start a month before the Spring Festival in 2026, with the top range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is weakly stagnant, with the mainstream price of small and medium - sized particles in the reference range of 1560 - 1710 yuan/ton. The downstream resists high prices, and the upstream prices are mostly stable with some local markets slightly declining [11]. - The trend of urea is expected to be weakly volatile. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea is in a supply - surplus phase due to new capacity release in 2026. The price is influenced by export policies. The 05 contract has a price - increase expectation during the demand peak season [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. The 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern, and the 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Urea is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. Short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong due to peak - season demand expectations. The upper pressure of the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. Short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The fourth quarter is the winter - storage phase of the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL has issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [16]. - Negative Information: The current domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. After the maintenance of some plants in Shandong and Jiangsu is completed and some gas - based plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan are shut down for maintenance, the domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly to around 200,000 tons [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, an increase from this week. There are no planned shutdowns for enterprises next week, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - Domestic Market: The domestic urea market continued to rise steadily over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of small and medium - sized particles is in the range of 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender have boosted market sentiment, but downstream resistance has emerged. The short - term market will continue to be moderately strong [19]. - Basis and Month - Spread Structure: Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. The compound fertilizer and industrial demand are weak, and the price drive is limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern [20]. 3.2 Industrial Hedging Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% in three years [25]. - Hedging Strategies: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, short urea futures to lock in profits, buy put options to prevent price drops, and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs, sell put options to collect premiums, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Analyze the seasonal production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural - gas, and water - coal - slurry gasification methods [27][28][30]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - Track the daily and weekly production, capacity utilization, and coal - based and natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea [36][37]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - Observe the seasonal inventory of Chinese urea enterprises, ports, and in Guangdong and Guangxi regions, as well as the total inventory of ports and the inland [39][40][42]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Monitor the capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and profit of compound fertilizers, as well as the market prices, capacity utilization, production volume, and profit of melamine in different regions [44][48][55]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - Track the seasonal production and sales of urea in different regions and the market price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan [68][69].