KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-05 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company is fully promoting market-oriented transformation to address supply-demand matching issues. Short-term, the product structure and pricing of Moutai liquor are becoming more market-oriented, which is expected to show resilient performance in demand during the Spring Festival. The wholesale price is anticipated to stabilize and recover year-on-year, strengthening the support for valuation [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve stable performance through flexible policies and adjustments across multiple channels and products. The recent reforms are expected to improve the profitability of distributors, leading to a sequential improvement in channel profits [3][8] - In the medium to long term, the market-oriented reforms will help the company directly cultivate consumers. Its production, craftsmanship, and brand value remain industry-leading, ensuring continued brand valuation premium and investor returns even as perpetual growth rates converge [3][8] Summary by Sections Market-Oriented Transformation - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches and adjusting product, channel, pricing, and incentive strategies [2][3] Product Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure and pricing system, aiming to create a pyramid product system with "Feitian + Boutique" as the two major products. The 2026 Moutai liquor output is expected to remain stable, with an increase in the output of regular and boutique products while reducing non-standard products [4] Channel Strategy - The company has established a diversified sales model with a "4+6" channel ecosystem, planning to adjust product distribution and sales models to better match market demand. This includes enhancing the profitability of distributors and integrating online and offline channels [5][7] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 183.3 billion, 184.3 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 90.45 billion, 90.50 billion, and 91.79 billion yuan, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [3][9]