南华期货光伏产业周报：波动率有所下降，基本面逐渐生效-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed a wide - range oscillation, and it was difficult to judge the trend. The core logic of the price trend focused on factors such as supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [2]. - The industry's fundamentals presented a "weak supply and demand" characteristic. The polysilicon production was on a downward trend, and the expansion of industry supply slowed down significantly. The production of downstream silicon wafers, cells, and components was also under pressure, and the overall industrial chain was contracting. The polysilicon inventory remained at a recent high without an obvious inflection point. The component tendering market was weak this week, with a decline in both the tendering quantity and the average transaction price [2]. - The subsequent trading logic was recommended to be based on the technical analysis supported by price trends and volume - energy changes, as the fundamentals were temporarily ineffective [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price included supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [2]. - The near - term trading logic (before the Spring Festival in 2026) involved warehouse receipt registration, supply - and - demand side reduction and shutdown, and technical - side long - position holdings. The long - term trading logic (after the Spring Festival in 2026) included observing the progress of "anti - involution" policies, photovoltaic policies, and downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [7]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - The polysilicon futures price was expected to oscillate widely, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years [8]. - For polysilicon sales, to prevent price drops and profit losses, enterprises could sell far - month futures contracts according to production plans (20% recommended hedging ratio) or use a combined option strategy (10% recommended hedging ratio). For polysilicon procurement, different hedging strategies were recommended based on different procurement models, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 20% [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information - On December 26, the two ministries stated that by 2030, the power grid would accept 900GW of distributed new energy, with an expected increase of 400GW. - On December 30, Zhonglai Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary won the bid for a photovoltaic component project [9]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 58,145 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.53%. The trading volume was 36,300 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 76.92%, and the open interest was 136,500 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 76,300 lots. The month - spread between PS2602 and PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 720 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, a week - on - week increase of 70 lots [11]. - Technically, the polysilicon futures price ran near the 20 - day line, showing a "long - and - short position reduction and oscillation" feature. It also ran near the middle of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band oscillated and narrowed [12]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon was still in a strong - oscillation state, the implied volatility of at - the - money options showed a weak - oscillation trend, and the PCR of option open interest was in a weak - oscillation state, indicating a decreasing bearish sentiment in the market. The net long - position scale showed signs of reduction, and the futures term structure was in a chaotic state [14][16][18]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of change this week. For example, the price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1.72% week - on - week, and the price index of silicon wafers increased by 10.00% week - on - week [24]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises was stable. The spot profit of polysilicon showed a stable trend, and the profit of the silane method was higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures was about 35.42% [25]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic polysilicon production showed different trends. SMM's weekly production was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14%, while Baichuan's weekly production was 26,580 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%. The total domestic polysilicon inventory was 537,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% [30][35]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 10.18GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%, and the weekly inventory was 23.19GW, a week - on - week increase of 6.92% [38]. 3.5.3 Cell Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 8.63GW, a week - on - week decrease of 14.21% [48]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 31.2GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [54]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The photovoltaic winning bid capacity was 361.73MW, a week - on - week decrease of 78.55%, and the average winning bid price was 0.74 yuan/watt, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% [56]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - No specific data analysis was provided in the text, but there were charts related to China's monthly new photovoltaic installation volume and green power generation [59][62].