2026年甲醇展望：需求验证预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the biggest contradiction in methanol lies in the improvement of the willingness to hold goods. Despite high port inventories, the negotiable inventory is limited. With the slow unloading speed, the methanol port has become a market of stock - based competition. The concentration of cargo rights has led to an increase in port basis, and the strong inland demand has continuously relieved the pressure on the port. In the medium - term, port contradictions will gradually ease. The slow arrival of goods will stretch the inventory accumulation slope, and the pressure of high supply at the port will gradually decrease. From the perspective of port inventories alone, the 05 contract is in a process of gradual inventory reduction. Inland, after the commissioning of Lianhong, traders' bullish sentiment was strong, especially with the maintenance of Jiutai, bringing a prosperous period. However, with Jiutai's resumption, there are signs of weakness. In the long - run, the inland supply - demand situation is still relatively healthy. As an intermediate product, methanol needs to consider the valuation of its upstream and downstream industries. From the perspective of coal and olefin downstream, the valuation is at a low level, and the upside potential of methanol is limited. In summary, under the expectation of inventory reduction, it is difficult for methanol to reach new lows, but its upward movement is restricted by upstream and downstream industries. Attention should be paid to the demand increment brought by the commissioning of new plants. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Methanol Market Review - First Quarter: The market was volatile. The article about the Iranian energy crisis in the New York Times triggered a sharp increase in domestic sentiment, with the futures price and port paper - based basis rising significantly. Then, the shutdown of Xingxing at the MTO end led to an expectation of olefin - end shutdown, causing the methanol price to rise first and then fall. After the Spring Festival, there was a large - scale seasonal inventory accumulation inland, and the market price decreased. After the price of inland methanol was oversold, the procurement by coastal olefin producers provided support. The Spring maintenance plans of major plants such as Xin'ao, Rongxin, Huayu, and Jiutai Dalu in March also contributed to the price rebound. The main contradiction was the recovery time of Iranian plants. With the gradual recovery of inland MTO external procurement and downstream operations, the bottom price of methanol was supported. By the end of the first quarter, Iranian plants returned, and the shipping volume recovered, ending the bullish story. - Second Quarter: Methanol prices were greatly affected by macro factors. The change in US tariff policy and the outbreak of the Iran - Israel conflict had an impact on the market. The US tariff increase and China's counter - measures led to a decline in methanol valuation. Later, the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks and a larger - than - expected tariff reduction improved market sentiment, and methanol prices rose. The Iran - Israel conflict increased geopolitical risks. As China is the world's largest methanol consumer and imports a large amount of methanol from Iran, the conflict led to concerns about supply and an increase in downstream costs, pushing up the methanol valuation. After the conflict, the rapid decline in methanol prices was mainly due to the disappearance of "geopolitical premium" rather than a weakening of fundamentals. - Third Quarter: The Iran - Israel conflict cooled down, but the shadow of war remained. Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, accelerating the loading of ships. The domestic anti - involution sentiment cooled down, and the cost - end price decreased. The methanol price fluctuated downward with intermittent rebounds. The high - level of overseas imports led to a historical high in port inventories, while the inland market was strong due to continuous external procurement by MTO plants. The theoretical reverse - flow window at the port remained open. In September, there was uncertainty about Iranian shipping. If Iranian plants shut down, it would support the price in the fourth quarter, and the methanol price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. - Fourth Quarter: Before the shutdown of Iranian plants, the import volume from Iran exceeded expectations, and the shipping volume reached a historical high. The port basis continued to decline, and the port inventory accumulation accelerated, putting pressure on the port basis. The 1 - 5 month spread first decreased and then rebounded due to the relatively fast shipping in the early stage of the fourth - quarter Iranian shipping. 3.2 2026 Methanol Supply - Demand Pattern Outlook 3.2.1 Supply - Side Device Commissioning - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic methanol new - project volume was considerable, and most projects were equipped with downstream facilities. The production process of new projects in 2025 involved coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, and carbon dioxide hydrogenation - based methods. Three new plants were commissioned in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total upstream production capacity of 6.7 million tons, and most of them were配套 with downstream facilities. In 2026, the planned commissioning production capacity was 5.55 million tons, including large - scale projects such as China Coal Yulin and Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng, but they were all配套 with downstream facilities, so the actual external sales volume was limited. - Overseas: In 2025, the overseas new commissioning production capacity was 3.4 million tons, including Sarawak in Malaysia (1.75 million tons/year) and Apadana in Iran (1.65 million tons/year). In 2026, attention should be paid to the 1.65 - million - ton/year Denapetro (DPC) plant in Iran. - Iranian Shipping: In the fourth quarter of 2024, the early arrival of overseas cold snaps led to the shutdown of some Iranian plants and a strengthening of the port basis. In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly average shipping volume from Iran was about 210,000 tons, and the import volume decreased by 40% compared with the first quarter of 2024 due to the delayed restart of Iranian plants. In the second quarter, the Iran - Israel conflict affected Iranian methanol production areas, and the shipping volume in June decreased sharply. In the third quarter, the conflict cooled down, and Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, with a monthly average shipping volume of 960,000 tons, putting pressure on the port. 3.2.2 Demand - Side Device Commissioning - MTO Demand in 2026: In 2025, one new MTO plant (Inner Mongolia Baofeng) was commissioned in the first quarter. Shandong Lianhong was postponed until December 2025. In 2026, a Guangxi Huayi MTO plant is expected to be commissioned in May. - Traditional Demand in 2025: In the first quarter, the downstream weighted operating rate was relatively high compared with the historical average, driven by the inland MTO demand. The MTBE demand increased significantly, with more export orders and new plant commissioning. In the second quarter, the downstream situation was affected by summer maintenance, but the operating rate was still acceptable. In the third quarter, the traditional downstream operating rate weakened, but the demand was resilient, with the demand increment mainly in acetic acid and MTBE. - New Downstream Commissioning in 2026: In 2025, the new downstream demand pattern was acceptable, with a slower growth rate compared with 2024. The new downstream industries mainly included BDO, acetic acid, silicone, formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF, with BDO and acetic acid having the largest new production capacity. In 2026, there are many new downstream commissioning plans, including MTO, acetic acid, MTBE, BDO, and ethanol projects, which will support the methanol demand. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Views - Balance Sheet: The 05 contract is in a process of continuous inventory reduction. In the short - term, the port is a stock - based competition market due to the improvement of the willingness to hold goods, slow unloading speed, and concentrated cargo rights, which has led to an increase in port basis. The strong inland demand has relieved the port pressure. In the long - run, the port contradictions will ease, and the pressure of high supply will decrease. Inland, the supply - demand situation is relatively healthy in the long - run, although there are short - term fluctuations. - Strategy Views: The future game points of methanol may include the inventory accumulation expectation after Iran's return (continued high - volume shipping), the huge demand increment brought by the commissioning of Huayi, and the limited upside potential of methanol due to the pressure on upstream and downstream industries.