Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-01-05 12:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and strong cost support at the bottom. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the northern operating rate [2]. - The polysilicon market also shows weak supply and demand, with inventory pressure still existing. However, due to strong price support in the market and downstream market games, it is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price: As of January 4, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week. The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated at a low level, closing at 8,860 yuan/ton on December 31 [2][7]. - Supply: In early January, some production capacities in Xinjiang were cut, and the output decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in Yunnan remained stable, and that in Sichuan slightly decreased. Overall, the output of industrial silicon continued to decline month - on - month [2][16]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon was basically stable, and the output in December increased slightly month - on - month. In January, some enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline. The output change of organic silicon was limited, and there was still a possibility of decline under the background of emission reduction and price support. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was basically stable. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. - Inventory: As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 557,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [2]. - Price Difference: As of January 4, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [11]. Polysilicon - Price: As of January 4, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and corrected at a high level, closing at 57,920 yuan/ton on December 31 [3][14]. - Supply: The expected output of polysilicon in December was 114,500 tons. In January, a small number of enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline month - on - month [3]. - Demand: Recently, there was an obvious game in the polysilicon market, with more inquiries from downstream. Under the influence of the establishment of the polysilicon production capacity integration platform and the expected sales restriction in January, leading enterprises strongly supported the price. Downstream silicon wafer enterprises increased the production reduction intensity, and maintained rigid demand procurement in the short term. Enterprises with low inventory increased the procurement intensity. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. - Cost: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. - Inventory: As of January 2, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 287,800 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week [3][22]. Downstream Products - Silicon Wafer: As of January 4, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475, and 1.65 yuan/piece respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.05, 0.05, 0.075, and 0.05 yuan/piece respectively. The price of the silicon wafer market strengthened, and the transaction increased significantly compared with the previous period [26]. - Battery Chip: As of January 4, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.38 yuan/watt respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/watt. The battery chips were strongly pulled up by cost drivers [30]. - Component: As of January 4, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.685, 0.705, 0.685, and 0.705 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The cost of components increased, and enterprises successively raised their quotes, but the overall transaction was weak in the off - season at the end of the year, showing a situation of high prices but few transactions [33]. Organic Silicon - Price and Operation: As of January 4, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The offers of mainstream monomer factories of organic silicon remained stable. The raw material inventories of some downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises were gradually consumed, and the inquiry and procurement increased. The operating rate change was not large in January, and it was expected to weaken [35][37]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Operation: As of December 31, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was stable, and they purchased at low prices as needed [41].