益生股份（002458）：竞争优势稳固，利润或将迎来改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of RMB 11.30 for the company based on a 2026 PE of 20X, reflecting its leading position and expected profit improvement trend [5][9]. Core Insights - The white chicken industry is expected to gradually recover in price, with the company focusing on the most profitable breeding segment, indicating a potential for continued sales growth and improved profitability per bird [2][5]. - The company is the largest grandparent meat breeder in China, holding approximately one-third of the domestic market, and has shown significant sales growth in parent breeders and chicks [5][18]. - The hog business is also expanding, with a gross profit margin of 25.5% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong performance compared to peers [5][18]. - Profitability is anticipated to increase in 2026 as industry capacity reduces, leading to price recovery, particularly benefiting the company's breeding-focused operations [5][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 3,225 million in 2023 to RMB 2,989 million in 2025, before recovering to RMB 3,514 million in 2026 and RMB 3,873 million in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly to RMB 196 million in 2025, but rebound to RMB 625 million in 2026 and RMB 818 million in 2027 [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 0.18 in 2025, RMB 0.56 in 2026, and RMB 0.74 in 2027, reflecting a recovery trend [5][9].