BILIBILI(US:BILI) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-06 09:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The distinction between content communities and information distribution platforms is crucial, as the method of content distribution influences platform types. Early content supply was limited, leading to high creator influence on platforms like Bilibili and Xiaohongshu, while ByteDance's algorithm-driven platforms like Douyin have a higher platform influence due to abundant content supply [3][14] - The community's path to diversification includes horizontal expansion into information distribution platforms or vertical integration into cultural brands. Bilibili and Xiaohongshu are expected to grow their daily active users (DAU) from 120 million in Q3 2025 to 200 million and 300 million, respectively, over the next 5-7 years [3][42] - Monetization strategies differ: information distribution platforms rely on advertising, while communities utilize various methods including value-added services. Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue could reach 200 billion by 2030, representing a fourfold growth potential, while Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19% over the next three years, reaching 16.8 billion by 2028 [4][63] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses the differences between information distribution platforms, content communities, and social platforms, emphasizing the role of user relationships in content distribution [8][44] 2. Community Diversification Path - The report outlines two evolution paths: Douyin transitioned from a short video community to an information distribution platform, while Bilibili aims to become a cultural brand company focusing on niche markets [7][34] 3. Community Monetization Methods - Monetization methods include "broad content + advertising" for information distribution platforms and "vertical content + subscriptions" for communities. Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue is expected to grow significantly, while Bilibili focuses on vertical integration and value-added services [4][63] 4. Impact of AI on Community Ecosystem - AI technology significantly empowers content communities by lowering content creation costs and enhancing content matching efficiency, which improves monetization capabilities [5] 10. Industry Situation - The report notes that content communities have smaller user bases and slower growth compared to information distribution platforms, with Douyin covering a broader audience [10][14]