BILIBILI(US:BILI) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-06 12:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The distinction between content communities and information distribution platforms is crucial, as the method of content distribution influences platform type. Early content supply was limited, leading to high creator influence on platforms like Bilibili and Xiaohongshu, while ByteDance's algorithm-driven platforms like Douyin have a higher platform influence due to abundant content supply [3][14] - The community's path to diversification includes horizontal expansion into information distribution platforms or vertical integration into cultural brands. Bilibili and Xiaohongshu are expected to grow their daily active users (DAU) from 120 million in Q3 2025 to 200 million and 300 million, respectively, over the next 5-7 years [3][42] - Monetization strategies differ: information distribution platforms rely on advertising, while communities utilize various methods including value-added services. Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue could reach 200 billion by 2030, representing a fourfold growth potential, while Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19% over the next three years, reaching 16.8 billion by 2028 [4][63] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report outlines the differences between information distribution platforms, content communities, and social platforms, emphasizing the role of user relationships in content distribution [44] 2. Community Diversification Path - The report discusses the horizontal diversification into information distribution platforms or vertical integration into cultural brands, highlighting the competitive landscape between Bilibili, Xiaohongshu, and Douyin [3][42] 3. Community Monetization Methods - Monetization methods are categorized into "broad content + advertising" or "niche content + subscriptions." The report details how Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue could significantly increase, while Bilibili focuses on niche content monetization through value-added services and gaming [4][63] 4. Impact of AI on Community Ecosystem - AI technology is noted to empower companies with weaker infrastructure, enhancing content production efficiency and improving content matching and monetization capabilities [5] 10. Industry Situation - The report highlights the slow growth of content communities, with Bilibili and Xiaohongshu facing challenges in user base expansion compared to Douyin, which has a broader reach [10][12]