铁矿石周报20260106：铁水产量回升，盘面高位震荡-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current iron ore supply is relatively abundant, with the demand side seeing a rebound in molten iron production, which provides support for rigid - demand procurement. Coupled with the expectation of winter storage replenishment, the iron ore market will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The trading strategy is range - bound [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price - Spot prices are fluctuating and consolidating [7] - The price difference between high - and medium - grade ores is widening, while the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores is temporarily stable. The price difference between PB powder and Mac fine powder is decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread is oscillating at a low level, and the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts is slightly rising [12][16][20] - As of January 5, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder is 895, up 11 from the end of last month, with a notional futures price of 841, also up 11; the spot price of PB powder is 806, up 4, with a notional futures price of 858, up 5; the spot price of Super Special powder is 684, up 4, with a notional futures price of 887, up 5. The high - medium grade price difference is 89, and the medium - low grade price difference is 122. The optimal deliverable product is 61.5% Brazilian coarse ore, with a spot price of 770 and a notional futures price of 838 [29] - The rebar - to - ore ratio continues to decline, and the ore - to - coking coal ratio is oscillating at a high level [30] Supply - From December 29 to January 4, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons; Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, a decrease of 151,500 tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 1.029 million tons, a decrease of 191,100 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2.7564 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 155,000 tons [5] - As of December 31, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 mines across the country was 43,330 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The mine concentrate inventory was 84,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 950 tons [5] - Global shipments are seasonally declining, with non - mainstream ore shipments, Australian ore shipped to China, Brazilian ore shipments, FMG and BHP shipments to China, RT shipments to China, and VALE shipments all showing declines. The freight rate index continues to decline. The arrival volume has slightly increased and remains at a high level, and the decline in domestic iron ore concentrate production has slowed down [36][40][44][48][52][56][59] Demand - In the week of December 31, the daily average molten iron production was 227,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,500 tons. The end of the steel mill production quota restrictions led to the resumption of production of some steel mill blast furnaces, and the rebound in molten iron production supports the ore price. The steel mill profit rate has slightly increased, and the imported ore price is oscillating in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits have slightly increased, and blast furnaces in steel mills are gradually resuming production, with molten iron production slightly rebounding [65][71] Inventory - In this period, the imported ore inventory continued to increase, the number of ships at the port increased by 2 to 105, the port congestion slightly increased, the arrival volume remained at a high level, the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level, while the steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still provides support [5] - The port throughput has slightly increased, the port inventory has continued to increase, the Australian ore inventory has continued to increase, the Brazilian ore inventory has slightly decreased, the coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory has slightly decreased. Steel mill consumption has slightly increased, and the imported ore inventory is at a low level [78][82][89][97]