Berun Chemical(SZ:000683) Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:49Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, new soda ash production capacity will still be put into operation, with overall sufficient supply. The downstream float glass industry still faces the pressure of declining real - estate demand and is expected to maintain low profits. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate. The problem of excessive supply - demand gap in the downstream photovoltaic glass industry still exists, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts in the future. The loose supply situation of soda ash in 2025 needs to be improved, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [3][52] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Soda Ash Price Fluctuated Downward Throughout the Year - In 2025, the domestic soda ash market price fluctuated downward. From January to February, the domestic soda ash futures price rebounded with a high of 1600. From March to June, it fluctuated downward to a low of 1150. In July, it rebounded with a high of 1500. From August onwards, it showed a downward trend [8] Chapter 2: Supply - Side Analysis - New Capacity Investment Expectations: In the first half of 2025, the domestic soda ash capacity increased by 230 tons, and the total capacity reached 4110 tons by the end of June. In 2026, there will be a concentrated production - launch wave, with new capacity exceeding 5.5 million tons and the total capacity approaching 47 million tons. Key projects include the full - load operation of the 2.8 million - ton/year natural soda ash of Yuanxing Energy's Alxa Phase II, the gradual output release of Yuntu Holdings' 700,000 - ton soda ash project, the likely completion and operation of Jinshan's 2 - million - ton project, and the planned construction and operation of Hengyang Hengyi Alkali Factory's 1 - million - ton project [11][12] - High - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Operation: In 2025, the soda ash operation generally maintained an 80% - 90% range. In the first half of the year, there were concentrated enterprise overhauls in March and May, resulting in a significant increase in losses. In the second half of the year, it continued to fluctuate. In November, supply decreased due to equipment fluctuations, and in December, supply increased as overhauls were restored [16] - Low - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Profits: In 2025, soda ash production profits fluctuated around the break - even point, significantly lower than the previous year. As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 49 yuan/ton, up 50.25% month - on - month; the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 67.60 yuan/ton, up 1.31% month - on - month [19] - Significant Year - on - Year Increase in Soda Ash Exports: In 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports increased significantly, but export prices declined. In January - June, imports were about 18,500 tons, and exports were about 1.0156 million tons, up 126.54% year - on - year. In October, imports were 30 tons, and exports were 214,500 tons, up 14.14% month - on - month and 32.62% year - on - year [21][22] - High - Level Increase in Soda Ash Manufacturers' Inventory: In 2025, the enterprise inventory fluctuated at a high level. As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4943 million tons, down 2.88% week - on - week. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory first rose and then declined [23] Chapter 3: Demand - Side Analysis - Analysis of Downstream Float Glass Demand - Impact of Profits on Float Glass Capacity Utilization: From January to November 2025, the float glass output was 51.48 million tons, down about 5.2% year - on - year. The overall daily melting volume was stable, with an average industry start - up rate of about 74.32% and a capacity utilization rate of 77.48%. The real - estate demand for float glass is under pressure, and the industry is in the process of capacity clearance [30] - Float Glass Profits Expected to Remain Low: In 2025, float glass maintained relatively stable low profits from January to October and declined after October. As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 181.40 yuan/ton, up 15.02 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using coal - gas was - 7.63 yuan/ton, down 14.14 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using petroleum coke was - 0.07 yuan/ton, down 35.71 yuan/ton month - on - month [32] - Expected Decline in Float Glass Demand and Accelerated Supply Contraction: In 2025, the float glass price fluctuated weakly. The real - estate sector accounts for 65% of float glass demand, and the real - estate construction area has been declining. In 2026, the real - estate completion area is expected to decline further. The Chinese automobile production is expected to grow moderately in 2026. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate in 2026 [35][37][38] - Analysis of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Demand: The photovoltaic glass price showed a downward trend from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, due to policy - driven terminal power station rush - installation in the second quarter, the price rose, but after that, there was a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the price dropped. In the third quarter, the price returned above the cost line under the "anti - involution" action. By the end of November, the price approached the cash cost line of some enterprises. In the current macro - economic environment, there is limited space for demand stimulation, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts [40][41] Chapter 4: Analysis of Other Influencing Factors - Real - Estate and Building Materials Industry Policies: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real - estate market and promoting the construction of a new real - estate development model. The "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" strictly regulates cement and glass production capacity and promotes the elimination of backward capacity [43][44] - The Domestic Economy is Expected to Continue to Recover, and Policies are Oriented towards Stabilizing the Economy: The Central Economic Work Conference stressed implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting high - quality economic development [47] Chapter 5: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase in 2026, and enterprises may increase exports to relieve inventory pressure. The downstream float glass industry faces pressure from declining real - estate demand, and the elimination of backward capacity is expected to accelerate. The photovoltaic glass industry has a large supply - demand gap, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts. The soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [51][52]