盐湖股份（000792）：业绩超预期，拟以现金收购五矿盐湖51%股权

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance for 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 82.9-88.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78%-90.65%. The fourth quarter net profit is expected to be 37.9-43.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 148.9%-188.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.5%-120.7% [3][4] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance its potassium and lithium resource control [4][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in potassium and lithium prices, as well as the confirmation of deferred tax assets, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3][4] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 163.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 85.57 billion yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 1.62 yuan per share [5][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 63.8% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 52.4% [5][12] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 171.29 billion yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20.0 for 2025 [1][5] Production and Sales Data - In 2025, the company’s potassium chloride production is estimated at 4.9 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, while lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 16.2% to 46,500 tons [4][9] - The average price for potassium chloride is projected to be 3,002 yuan per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, while lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline [4][9] Acquisition Impact - Following the acquisition of Minmetals Salt Lake, the company’s potassium chloride and lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to expand significantly, with a long-term goal of reaching 10 million tons per year for potassium chloride and 200,000 tons per year for lithium salts by 2030 [7][8] - Minmetals Salt Lake has proven reserves of 1.463 million tons of potassium chloride and 164,590 tons of lithium chloride, which will enhance the company's resource base [4][7]