Luenmei Quantum (SH:600167) Guotou Securities·2026-01-07 07:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 7.35 yuan [6]. Core Insights - The company has a stable heating business and is actively transforming into a new type of comprehensive energy service provider, leveraging its advantages in location and cost [2]. - The clean heating business includes various technologies such as cogeneration, water source heat pumps, and biomass cogeneration, with a focus on expanding its service area in Shenyang [2]. - The high-speed rail media segment has faced short-term profit pressure but is expected to recover as new business developments are completed [3]. - Hydrogen energy is included in the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is anticipated to contribute to new growth opportunities for the company [4]. Financial Performance Summary - From 2018 to 2020, the company's revenue grew from 3.037 billion yuan to 3.598 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8%, and net profit increased from 1.317 billion yuan to 1.685 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.14% [1]. - Revenue is expected to stabilize around 3.5 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, with a projected net profit of 659 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 23.29% due to impairment losses [1]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with dividends of 475 million yuan, 447 million yuan, and 711 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing payout ratios of 50.26%, 52.02%, and 108.02% respectively [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The heating and steam segment is expected to generate revenues of 2.359 billion yuan, 2.413 billion yuan, and 2.473 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with improving gross margins due to declining coal prices [18]. - The power generation business is projected to maintain stable revenues of 134 million yuan, 136 million yuan, and 139 million yuan over the same period, with gross margins of 3% [18]. - The engineering segment is expected to decline due to the overall slowdown in the real estate sector, with revenues forecasted at 168 million yuan, 151 million yuan, and 136 million yuan [18]. - The advertising business, driven by the high-speed rail media segment, is expected to recover, with revenues projected at 685 million yuan, 719 million yuan, and 791 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [18].