GWMOTOR(SH:601633) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-07 10:29Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a flat-rate model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands will be less affected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to reshape the sales structure of NEVs in 2026, with a decline in demand for low-end models and a relative advantage for mid-to-high-end models [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The new subsidy policy will lead to a 19% reduction for Geely and a 14% reduction for BYD, while companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a smaller impact of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [2]. - The demand for A0 and A00 level low-end models, which previously relied heavily on subsidies, is expected to decrease significantly [2]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - Xiaopeng Motors delivered nearly 430,000 vehicles in 2025, a 126% year-on-year increase. However, the average selling price (ASP) dropped from approximately 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025 due to changes in product mix [3]. - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 597,000 vehicles in 2025, doubling from 290,000 in 2024. The company plans to launch two high-end models in 2026 and aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles [4]. - Great Wall Motors sold 1.32 million vehicles in 2025, with a 7% year-on-year growth. The company has set a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles for 2026, reflecting a 40% increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies with advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers like Yinchuan, Fuda, and Shuanghuan, which are expected to benefit from the new subsidy policies [6].