极兔速递-W(01519):东南亚及新市场业务量高增,上调盈利预测:极兔速递-W (01519)

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [7]. - The fourth quarter saw a total package volume of 8.461 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with Southeast Asia showing a remarkable growth of 73.6% [7]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of $387 million, $602 million, and $888 million for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47% respectively [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: $8.849 billion - 2024: $10.259 billion - 2025E: $12.406 billion - 2026E: $15.573 billion - 2027E: $19.911 billion - The corresponding year-on-year growth rates are 21.77%, 15.93%, 20.93%, 25.53%, and 27.86% [6][8]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are $387 million, $602 million, and $888 million, with respective growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47% [6][7]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are projected to be 33x, 21x, and 15x [7].