SHANXI SECURITIES(SZ:002500) Shanxi Securities·2026-01-07 00:46Market Trends - The convertible bond market is expected to maintain a high level due to supply-demand imbalance, with a recommendation for index component adjustment and deep individual bond exploration [4][7] - Since mid-August 2025, the median market price of convertible bonds has fluctuated between 129-135 yuan, with 130 yuan being a potential upper limit due to most public convertible bonds having strong redemption clauses at 130% [7] - The overall valuation of the convertible bond market is considered high, with a significant decrease in turnover rate from 15% in late August to around 9% in October [7] 2026 Market Outlook - By the end of 2026, the number of outstanding convertible bonds is projected to decrease to around 300, with a bond balance of 480 billion yuan, and further to 250 bonds and 350 billion yuan by the end of 2027 [7] - The market is expected to focus on high-priced bonds, newly listed bonds, and bonds with less than one year remaining until maturity [7] Investment Strategies for 2026 - The convertible bond ETF currently has an AUM exceeding 52 billion yuan, with significant influence on the market [7] - A strategy involving index component adjustment arbitrage is recommended, with a historical cumulative return of 52.06% from buying new bonds on the day after listing and selling on the first day of the following month [7] - Key individual bonds to focus on include 运机, 微导, 应流, 渝水, 百润, among others [7] Industry Commentary - INHBE siRNA is identified as a promising therapy for fat reduction without muscle loss, showing potential for long-term dosing with only 1-2 injections per year [8][9] - The clinical trial results for WVE-007 indicate a 9.2% reduction in visceral fat and a 0.9% increase in lean body mass after 12 weeks [8] - ARO-INHBE combined with GLP-1 showed a 23.2% reduction in visceral fat and a 9.4% weight loss in diabetic obese patients, demonstrating superior results compared to GLP-1 alone [8][9]