华能水电（600025）：单季电量加速增长，全年业绩展望积极

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total electricity generation of 1,269.32 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.32%. The on-grid electricity volume is projected to be 1,258.58 billion kWh, also up by 13.36% year-on-year [6][12] - The water inflow in the Lancang River basin is expected to be 15% higher than the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in electricity generation. The company anticipates a strong performance in the fourth quarter, with a projected electricity generation of 306.66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.01% [2][12] - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the full operation of TB Hydropower Station and Huanliangbao Hydropower Station, which will enhance overall efficiency and growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to complete a hydropower generation of 916.49 billion kWh, a 10.35% increase year-on-year, with the fourth quarter alone generating 291.66 billion kWh, up 17.26% year-on-year [2][12] - The company’s overall electricity generation is expected to grow by 13.32% year-on-year, supported by improved water inflow and operational efficiency [6][12] Financial Outlook - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 0.50 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.30, 18.13, and 17.26 [12][16] - The financial performance is expected to benefit from reduced costs and optimized financial expenses, despite potential pressures from market electricity prices [12] Growth Strategy - The company is actively pursuing diversification by investing in renewable energy and thermal power projects, aiming for sustainable development through a "water-wind-solar integration" approach [12] - The company has increased its renewable energy capacity to 5.96 million kW, a rise of 2.26 million kW compared to the end of 2024 [12]