Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-08 07:45Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows from active funds such as leveraged and private equity funds, while insurance capital will also play a substantial role, contrasting with the overall net redemption of actively managed public funds [1][2][3] - The report suggests that the current inflow of funds is primarily from high-net-worth individuals, and as the risk appetite of most residents gradually recovers from a low point, ordinary residents are expected to become the main source of market funds in 2026 [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shares similarities with 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan in 2026 as resident funds enter the market [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the main source of incremental funds in the A-share market will be active funds, with a notable inflow of 4.2 billion yuan from insurance capital and approximately 7 billion yuan from leveraged funds since July [2][19] - The report highlights that the inflow of funds in the first half of 2025 was characterized by a recovery in market sentiment, with significant contributions from retail investors and foreign capital, alongside a notable increase in insurance and ETF investments [2][14] - The report indicates that the incremental funds in 2025 primarily flowed into technology and dividend sectors, with insurance capital showing a marked increase in allocation to banking and transportation sectors [2][14] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, with indications that the current inflow is largely from high-net-worth individuals, as the majority of residents have not yet shown significant signs of entering the market [3][33] - It notes that while there is a warming trend in the risk appetite of residents, many remain cautious, with a significant portion of their funds still allocated to low-risk products [3][36] - The report also points out that the overall risk appetite of residents remains low, which may hinder a broader influx of resident funds into the market [3][41] Group 4 - The report forecasts that in 2026, the A-share market is expected to see a net inflow of 2 trillion yuan, driven by increased participation from retail investors and sustained high inflows from insurance capital [4][55] - It outlines that the inflow of funds will be supported by a combination of retail active funds, insurance capital, and improved conditions for public and foreign funds, with an estimated 10 billion yuan from retail and 7 billion yuan from insurance capital [4][57] - The report anticipates that the overall dividend scale will continue to grow, with an expected inflow of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a trend of increasing dividend payouts by listed companies [4][57]