申万宏源证券晨会报告-20260109

Core Insights - The report highlights the investment potential of MTR Corporation (0066.HK), emphasizing its "Rail + Property" model which is expected to drive growth in line with the recovery of the Hong Kong economy [4][11] - The projected net profits for MTR Corporation from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HKD 162.03 billion, HKD 201.66 billion, and HKD 101.38 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 9x, and 19x [4][11] - The report assigns a target price of HKD 35.55 per share for MTR Corporation, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current market value, and recommends an "Outperform" rating [4][11] Company Overview - MTR Corporation has evolved into the core operator of Hong Kong's rail transit since its establishment in 1975, with significant expansions including the merger with Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation in 2007 and acquiring franchises in cities like Beijing and Hangzhou [11] - The Hong Kong government, represented by the Financial Secretary, holds a 74.45% stake in MTR Corporation, with the remainder owned by public and institutional investors [11] Business Model and Market Position - The "Rail + Property" development strategy allows MTR Corporation to finance railway projects through the development of land along railway lines, which is crucial given the high costs and long payback periods associated with railway construction [11] - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to enhance MTR's long-term property development prospects, with significant revenue recognition anticipated in 2025 and 2026 [11] - MTR's core operations in Hong Kong are supported by a fare adjustment mechanism, and the business is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in passenger traffic [11] Dividend Policy and Valuation - MTR Corporation has adopted a progressive dividend policy, with dividends per share increasing from HKD 1.06 in 2015 to HKD 1.31 in 2024, and is expected to maintain this level in the coming years [11] - The overall enterprise value of MTR Corporation is estimated at HKD 2,766 billion, with a 20% discount applied due to its diversified operations, leading to a calculated equity value of HKD 2,213 billion [4][11]