CMES(SH:601872) Huachuang Securities·2026-01-09 03:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60 to 66 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% to 29%, with a median forecast of 63 billion yuan, which is a 23% increase year-on-year [1] - The report highlights the sustained optimism regarding the oil shipping cycle, driven by supply dynamics and geopolitical factors affecting oil trade [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from 25,799 million yuan in 2024 to 26,878 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 5,107 million yuan in 2024 to 6,303 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 23.4% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.63 yuan in 2024 to 0.78 yuan in 2025 [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 12.0 yuan, with the current price at 9.60 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 25% [3] Industry Insights - The report notes that as of January 2026, the order backlog for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) accounts for 17.2% of the fleet, while over 20-year-old vessels represent 19% of the capacity, indicating a tightening supply environment [2] - The report also mentions that the share of VLCC capacity under sanctions has risen to 16.57%, which is expected to create inefficiencies in non-compliant oil trade, benefiting compliant market demand [2]