古井贡酒（000596）：定力足顺势充分纾压，韧性强筑底重拾升势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu [1] Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu is expected to navigate through the current industry adjustment phase, with a focus on stabilizing its management team and leveraging its brand and market advantages to recover sales in the long term [12][31] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the mass market segment, as it has a strong brand presence and distribution channels [27][31] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue projections for Gujing Gongjiu are as follows: 2023A: 20,254 million, 2024A: 23,578 million, 2025E: 18,705 million, 2026E: 19,146 million, 2027E: 21,119 million [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: 2023A: 4,589 million, 2024A: 5,517 million, 2025E: 4,243 million, 2026E: 4,448 million, 2027E: 5,004 million [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 8.68, 2024A: 10.44, 2025E: 8.03, 2026E: 8.42, 2027E: 9.47 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as: 2023A: 15.66, 2024A: 13.03, 2025E: 16.94, 2026E: 16.16, 2027E: 14.37 [1] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the white liquor industry has entered a period of adjustment since 2021, with significant revenue and profit declines observed in major companies during 2025 [12][13] - Gujing Gongjiu's management team has remained stable during this challenging period, reflecting support from local government for the company's stability [12][18] Long-term Outlook - Gujing Gongjiu is expected to leverage its strong brand and market position to recover and grow, particularly in the mass market segment, as consumer demand is anticipated to rebound [27][31] - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of penetrating surrounding markets while maintaining strong control in its home province of Anhui [31][56] Competitive Advantages - Gujing Gongjiu is recognized as a leading brand among the "Old Eight Famous Liquors" and has a competitive edge in both brand recognition and distribution channels [32][39] - The company has implemented a "Three Connections Project" to enhance its distribution efficiency and market penetration [46][49]