12月美国就业数据点评：就业“新稳态”

Overview - In December, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, which was below the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[2] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, while the labor force participation rate also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%[2][8] Market Reaction - Following the release of the employment data, market reactions were relatively muted, with slight rebounds in the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index after initial declines[2][13] - U.S. stock markets experienced a brief uptick before retreating, while gold prices continued to rise, indicating market concerns over the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls[2][13] Employment Structure - The weak performance in December's job growth was particularly evident in the goods-producing sector, with construction jobs decreasing by 11,000 and manufacturing jobs showing a larger decline[3][18] - Private service sector jobs increased by 58,000, up from 32,000 in the previous month, indicating some resilience in this area[3][18] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain a "low-growth balance" in employment, characterized by a "no-job prosperity" due to simultaneous supply and demand contractions[3][4] - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" in the first half of 2026 may boost consumer spending and inflation, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[4] Risks - Key risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance than anticipated[4]