国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week, and the fundamentals changed little. The futures market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the positive spread month - to - month difference weakened further [4][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of January 3, there was 1 ship departing from New Zealand in January, all going to the Chinese mainland, with an expected arrival of about 1080000 cubic meters in January and 0 in February [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the average daily shipment of Lanshan Port was 20300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 13800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1242000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 307000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 36500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 122200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 5200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 78100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1749300 cubic meters, a decrease of 93200 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of January 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 774.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.1% increase from last week. The futures market continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The positive spread month - to - month difference weakened further. The 03 - 05 month - to - month difference was - 12.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 23.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 11 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of January 10, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1718.00 points, a decrease of 164 points (- 8.71%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was 613 points, a decrease of 10.51% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1647.39 points, a decrease of 0.5% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index rebounded slightly after the New Year's Day. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.985, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% to 1.738 [57].