农林牧渔行业周报:保障措施落地催化牛价上涨,看好牧业景气周期-20260111

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in pig farming and poultry [62]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.98% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [12][14]. - In the pig farming sector, prices are currently stabilizing at a low level, with expectations of further declines due to weak supply and demand dynamics [21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices, particularly for white feather chickens, while yellow feather chickens are showing signs of recovery due to improved demand [32]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [40]. - The planting sector is facing tight supply and demand conditions, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans anticipated due to external uncertainties and domestic policy support [43][44]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with certain seafood prices trending upwards [51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 9, the national average price for commodity pigs is 12.63 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.36%. The average weight of pigs at market is 128.54 kg, showing a slight decrease [20][21]. - The sector is expected to face further price declines due to weak demand and supply conditions, with a focus on reducing production capacity amid ongoing losses [21][22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.64 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04%. The profitability of poultry farming is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement for yellow feather chickens due to better demand [30][32]. Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.58 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but up 14.62% year-on-year. The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season [40]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, while the industry is still facing significant financial pressure [40]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2250 yuan/ton, with expectations of tight supply conditions leading to potential price increases. The soybean market is also showing upward trends [43][44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at a low point, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in crop yields [44]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are also stable, with notable increases in certain seafood products [51].