TSMC(US:TSM) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2026-01-11 13:39Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of significant growth driven by AI demand and capital expenditures in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth prospects for the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand, with TSMC expected to see robust performance in Q1 2026 and beyond [1]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in prices for advanced processes from TSMC, with a projected price increase of 3% to 10% from 2026 to 2029 [1]. - The global semiconductor market is expected to approach $1 trillion in annual sales by 2026, with significant contributions from major cloud service providers [1]. - The demand for storage chips is forecasted to remain strong, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices expected to increase significantly in Q1 2026 [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving demand for PCB and core computing hardware, with many companies in the AI-PCB sector experiencing strong orders and production expansion [4][27]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 is projected at NT$335 billion, marking a 20.4% year-on-year increase [1]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a significant increase in sales, with November 2025 sales reaching $75.3 billion, a 29.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - Major cloud service providers are expected to invest $600 billion in AI infrastructure by 2026 [1]. AI and PCB Sector - The AI-PCB sector is experiencing strong demand, with companies reporting full production and sales [4]. - The report notes that the demand for AI-related PCBs is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of AI applications [4][27]. Storage and Memory - The report predicts a strong upward trend in memory prices, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 18-23% in Q4 2025 [20][23]. - The demand for storage solutions is expected to increase due to the expansion of data centers and consumer electronics [23][37]. Equipment and Materials - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to grow, with Q2 2025 global semiconductor equipment shipments expected to reach $33.07 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase [25]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic production capabilities in the semiconductor materials sector, particularly in light of export controls [24][26]. Company-Specific Insights - Companies like Micron and AI-related firms are expected to benefit from strong demand and production expansion [1][27]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong order elasticity and those involved in advanced process technologies [26][27].