商品房收储或对债市影响有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [164][165] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of commercial housing acquisition on the bond market may be limited. The acquisition mode may generate more financing needs, but the net impact on the bank - system liquidity should be less than that of government bond financing for new investments [2] - The US Treasury market downplays the impact of the tariff ruling. After the suspension of the tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court, the market may have reached a consensus on its impact. Regarding the new Fed Chair candidate, if Trump chooses Hassett, it may cause short - term market shocks and is difficult to achieve a super - large - scale interest rate cut without fundamental support [2] - The US employment market continued to cool in December last year, with only a slight year - on - year increase in non - farm employment, but stable non - farm salary growth, basically in line with the "soft landing" scenario. It is expected that the US government and the Fed may reach a compromise, with a possible final interest rate cut to the lower limit of the neutral interest rate predicted by the December interest rate dot - plot (2.5 - 2.75%), leaving room for 4 times of 25BP interest rate cuts from the current level. Under the baseline scenario, it is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026 and 1 - 2 times in 2027 [2] - The producer price index continued to rise. In the week of January 10, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture increased by 1.45% week - on - week and decreased by 21.17% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 0.89% week - on - week and increased by 8.55% year - on - year. In the week of January 2, the price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and decreased by 1.90% year - on - year. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week; the average of the Nanhua Iron Ore Index increased by 2.40% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a production capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.96% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar increased by 2.66% week - on - week, and the price index of rebar increased by 0.63% week - on - week. In the week of January 2, the producer price index increased by 0.30% week - on - week and decreased by 0.18% year - on - year [2] Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - It shows the comparison of high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, including the relationship between US ADP and official non - farm employment, US non - farm weekly wages and core CPI, etc. It also presents the week - on - week changes of high - frequency data and the panoramic scan of high - frequency data with the latest values and historical values of various indicators [11][15][16] Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macro - Indicator Trends - It includes multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value (+ year - on - year change of PPI), the year - on - year change of daily crude steel output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value, etc. [26][30][33] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - It presents charts about important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, such as US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, etc. [87][91][95] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, including the seasonal trends of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the spot settlement price of LME copper, etc. [99][100][107] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It provides charts showing the year - on - year changes of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [156][157]