量化观市：量化视角下开门红行情能否延续？

• The report discusses a rotation model for micro-cap stocks, which uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" as a key indicator. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, the model suggests investing in micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it recommends switching to the Mao Index. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope of both indices is considered, and the model opts for the index with a positive slope when their directions diverge [19][25][27] - A timing indicator is constructed based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility crowding degree of micro-cap stocks (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered [19][25] - The macro timing model recommends a 60% equity allocation for January, with signal strengths of 50% for economic growth and 60% for monetary liquidity. The model's year-to-date return is 14.59%, compared to 26.87% for the Wind All A Index [44][45][47] - Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000). Growth (2.15%) and consensus expectation (0.54%) factors performed well in terms of IC mean, while technical, value, and volatility factors underperformed [49][50][52] - Convertible bond selection factors are constructed based on the relationship between the underlying stock and the convertible bond. The valuation factor uses the parity-to-floor premium rate. Last week, the IC mean of the consensus expectation and growth factors for underlying stocks was relatively high [57][59][60]