Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-01-12 08:28Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.34% (+5.71%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.43 million tons (+4.42). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 35.42% (+0.33%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 26.12 million tons (+0.31). The operating rate and daily average output of mines increased month-on-month, as did the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal washing plants. After the import surge of Mongolian coal at the beginning of the year, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week, and overall supply increased [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons (+2.07), the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31% (+0.37%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.8 days (-0.08), and those in 230 independent coking plants were 13.68 days (+0.07). The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills continued to rise, the daily output of molten iron increased month-on-month, the available days of coking coal in steel mills slightly decreased, and those in coking plants slightly increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.9501 million tons (+1.67), that of all sample independent coking plants was 10.7168 million tons (+19.18), that of steel mills was 7.9773 million tons (-4.54), that of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.1965 million tons (-9.36), and that of major ports was 2.998 million tons (-1.5). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines and coking plants have slightly accumulated, while those of coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills have slightly decreased, and the purchasing sentiment has weakened [4]. - Summary: Last week, the supply and demand of the coking coal market both increased. Affected by positive factors such as the warming of macro - sentiment and the reduction of production capacity in production areas, the futures market rebounded from a low level. Previously shut - down coal mines gradually resumed production, and the operating rate of mines in the main production areas was 85.34%. Domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily output of molten iron continued to rise, and the coke output remained stable for the time being. Coking and steel plants still mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and there was no large - scale centralized restocking. Overall, domestic coal mines have returned to normal production, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply has increased, while downstream coking and steel enterprises have poor profitability, and there is no large - scale centralized restocking. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (-31), the capacity utilization rate of all sample independent coking plants was 72.69% (+0.97%), the daily output of all sample independent coking plants was 635,700 tons (+0.85), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 468,800 tons (+0.05). The loss of the average profit per ton of coke in coking plants continued to expand, and there was still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut for coke, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable for the time being. The main reason was that the sales situation had improved recently, some coking enterprises increased production, and the coke output of steel mills slightly increased [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons (+2.07), the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31% (+0.37), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.02 days (-0.08). The daily output of molten iron continued to rise, the blast furnace operating rate continued to increase, the inventory usage cycle of steel mills' coke slightly decreased, and there was a rigid demand for coke [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all sample independent coking plants was 860,700 tons (-5.53), that of major ports was 1.841 million tons (+4.01), and that of 247 steel mills was 6.4573 million tons (+1.74). The inventory of coking plants slightly decreased, while those of steel mills and ports slightly increased, and the overall social inventory of coke slightly increased [5]. - Summary: In terms of supply, the overall production level of coking enterprises remained stable for the time being. Due to the improved sales situation, some coking enterprises increased production. Coupled with the increase in the coke output of steel mills, the overall supply slightly increased. In terms of demand, the profitability of steel mills has improved, the resumption of blast furnaces has increased, the daily output of molten iron from steel mills has risen, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke. Overall, the current supply and demand of coke both increased. Recently, the strengthening of raw materials supported the futures market to be relatively strong, but the market still has an expectation of a fifth - round price cut. It is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the winter storage restocking demand [5]. Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) [7][11][15][19] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis of coking coal futures contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the inventories of 314 sample coal washing plants, 523 sample mines, 247 steel mills, and all sample independent coking plants, the port coking coal inventory, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants nationwide, and the customs clearance vehicle numbers of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [22][26][32] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data including the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis of coke futures contracts, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventories of all sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and port coke, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills [60][62][64]