钢材周报：螺纹库存增加，钢价震荡运行-20260112

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No explicit investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a pattern of increasing supply, weakening demand, and mixed inventory trends. Due to rising raw material costs, narrowing profit margins, and seasonal factors, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Macro - level policies aim to maintain liquidity, but terminal demand remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Steel Product Situation - Supply: The output of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills was 191.04 million tons (+2.82 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.51 million tons (+1 million tons). Some steel mills completed maintenance, leading to increased iron - water output and a significant rise in EAF operating rates [4]. - Demand: Demand was seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 174.96 million tons (-25.48 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 308.34 million tons (-2.43 million tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar as of January 9 was 8.03 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 2.65 million tons [4][46][50]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory accumulated, while hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08 million tons), and the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83 million tons) [4]. - Basis: As of January 9, the basis of the rebar main contract was 146 yuan/ton (-32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was -24 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton) [4]. - Price: The national average price of rebar was 3337 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3306 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation The cost - side support strengthened. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lüliang was 1403 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton; and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Steel Mill Situation - The profitability rate of steel mills declined to 37.66%. The iron - water output was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The EAF operating rate was 72.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.34%, and the EAF capacity utilization rate was 56.91%, a week - on - week increase of 1.76% [4]. - As of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 89.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65% [29]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Situation - Automobile Industry: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million units, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 units; sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. New - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 units; sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [69]. - Real Estate Industry: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.5% year - on - year, housing completion decreased by 18% year - on - year, commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and funds in place decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [72][73]. 3.5 Export Situation In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons. From January to November, cumulative steel exports were 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [65].