CTC(SH:603060) Huachuang Securities·2026-01-13 07:47Economic Indicators - The ratio of U.S. household net wealth to disposable income has risen to 7.9 times, up from 7.7 times in Q3 2024, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022, indicating recovery from the negative impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes[4] - The debt leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the U.S. has fallen below 100% for the first time in a decade, now at 98.8%[10] - The global share of U.S. dollars in foreign reserves has dropped to 56.9%, the lowest in 30 years, while the euro's share has increased to 20.3%[12] Market Performance - As of Q3 2025, the S&P 500 index has risen to 6,689 points, while the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has decreased to 329[4] - U.S. pension funds increased their equity holdings to $9.7 trillion in Q3 2025, up from $8.8 trillion in Q2 2025, with a funding gap now below $2 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2008[6] Productivity and Returns - U.S. labor productivity has increased by 66.8% since 1991, significantly outpacing other developed economies, with the Eurozone at 28.9%, Japan at 19.7%, and the UK at 17.6%[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is currently at 4%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[19] Financial Market Dynamics - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is currently at 37 basis points, which is 67 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -17 basis points, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 122.7 basis points, reflecting a rise in the use of the Fed's standing repo facility[25]